"Marc Lurie" wrote in message
...
Riverman, thanks for agreeing with me.

I'm curious... what are your thoughts on the up-coming elections in
the DRC?
My thoughts are simple: I predict that the country will plunge
headlong into a civil war. The Congolese have pulled the wool over the
eyes of the Americans, South Africans and Belgians who have pumped
huge amounts of money into the country which only served to strengthen
the kleptocracy and military strength of individual regions.


Hmm, hard to say. I was wrong when I predicted total anarchy last year when
the elections were postponed, and now I'm in Hong Kong and feel far removed
from the daily grind of Kinshasa. But I still stay in touch with friends
there and read about it on the wires, with more insights than most. I think
they will take place as planned, with lots of gripes about miscounted votes,
and the results will be generally what you expect.

A breakdown is always possible, however the real kleptocracy ended with
Mobuto, as Kabila Sr didn't have the infrastructure (or remaining resources)
to really do it right. Nonetheless, the kleptoculture still remains, so the
World Bank and other money suppliers are still a bit slow to open up the
valves quite yet, as compared to the Mobuto years. Their demand for a stable
government is sort of a long reach as a prior demand, but as long as the
Congolese must give the aura of working toward a stable government, the
money will be trickling in.

I don't see open warfare in the country, no matter what the result: the
regional militias are at maximum strength--they already have all the AK47s,
RPGs and 30mm guns they can carry--its people they lack, and there's no real
rush to join up. If there IS a civil war, it will be fought in sporatic
skirmishes in the eastern jungle and in the courts of Kinshasa. There will
be some spillover rioting in Kin, with gunfire and lockdowns like when I was
there, but the action will be in the East. But all that will be only if the
losers get all ****y. There's a fair chance that, now that they have sampled
a bit of the luxury life in Kin, they will try to continue to work their way
back in politically.

There is no unity in the country, and each region will be vieing for
as much power as it can get. I wouldn't like to be a mine operator in
Katanga right now. I see Uganda, Angola, Burundi, Zimbabwe and a host
of mercenaries getting involved in a very long and very bloody series
of civillian massacres. I also see a civillian uprising against
Belgians and other Europeans with devestating consequences.


No, I don't think there will be big civilian massacres, as there's no profit
in it. Previously, it was more of a territory/resource grab than a blood
feud, and now I think the warlords and Vice Presidents know they cannot rule
a breakaway province if they massacre the people. Kabila Sr got his power
base by courting the neighboring countries, and their current involvement is
because of debts he owed them. If Bembe gets ousted in the new government,
he may try to court Uganda, Rwanda and Angola, but the UN will stay on hand:
they are in charge of this election, and they now have a 'shoot to kill'
mandate, which they didn't have two years ago when the riots opened up in
Kinshasa. That will help keep the lid on.

I hope I'm wrong about the situation because there is a potential for
unbelievable human suffering in the region.

Actually, there is already a lot of that. Something like 5 million people
killed in the past 8 years, the bulk of them by machete.

At least, after Lumumba
was murdered, Mobuto ruled with an iron fist and managed to keep some
sort of order. That's not going to be the case this time. Che Guevara
said of Laurent Kabila: "Nothing leads me to believe he is the man of
the hour,", and I think the same could be said of his son.

Well, Mobuto's 'iron fist' was extremely disadvantageous to the vast
majority of the country, and Che was mostly ****ed at Kabila for not being
more of a violent revolutionary. I think Joseph Kabila is actually much more
of a pacifist and peacenik, and less of a kleptocrat than either of his two
predecessors. I think another 4-5 years of his cooperative rule, followed by
a more professional and legitimate politician with worldwide connections
might actually show the Congolese the path to the future. I think the vast
majority of the people feel the same way, even folks in the outer provinces,
so they will support the results and not fall in behind any
counterrevolutionary movement.

--riverman