I'm just using well-informed common sense. Headhunters have told me
that back when the economy was booming, ordinary jobs like secretary
jobs would only garner 20 or so resumes. Now those same jobs
attract hundreds of resumes. One headhunter told me that a really good
job attracted many, many thousands of resumes. In good times it would
have attracted hundreds of resumes.

Wrong. The only thing the hiring numbers might suggets is that there
may be high unemployment in the airline field. But even this must
assume that a large percentage of those who applied have either a
background or training in that specific field. Correlate the UAL
application numbers with responses for hiring in other professions. Do
they demonstrate the same application ratio to positions available?
And if not, can that then be attributed to a stable economy?

A social economist might deduce that the number of applications to UAL
indicate that the public now believes that the airline industry is on
the rebound.

Using 'well-informed common sense' requires recognition that the
politically acceptable answer is not always the correct one.