On Jan 31, 12:00 pm, Vernon North Vernon wrote:
In article .com,
says...

On Jan 30, 12:14 pm, Vernon North Vernon wrote:

You wrote: "Then why all the posts about how bad China is, with no
mention of the
trajectory?"

Reply: Because China's still vely vely bad! Duh! Do you know what
tutors say to failing students? "Johnny, you're making good progress!"
Because if you're at the bottom, you can't go any lower. And your past
and present GPAs are still not mentionable. Thus the positive focus
has got to be 'progress'. Let's say that the GDP per capita of China
were to double. That's still very low compared to the US or Japan! The
ramifications for the world when China 'grows' has to do with its
population size, but if you take into account per capita stats, China
is really really backward. That's btw the intention of this thread,
now that we're drifting off again and again. Furthermore, as countries
grow, growth tends to plateau out (sigmoidal curve?). So you cannot
just use 'trajectory' and then project China's into the infinite
future in a vacuum - and that's barring any natural disasters,
bursting of economic bubbles, or whatever terrorist surprises we may
have for us. And it will take a very very long time before China
catches up to Japan or US in GDP per capita.

IOW, the views you express lack balance.

In what way?

You write extensively about the bad in China (I agree with most of it)
while ignoring the incredible rate of improvement and the growing threat
it presents.

From The Economic Strategy Institute, February 24th, 2006

India vs. China: The Race for the Future

"While nothing is forever, the International Monetary Fund believes
China, which has been growing at a 10 percent annual rate, can maintain
at least 7 to 8 percent growth for the next ten years to fifteen years.
If so, it will surpass Japan to become the world's second largest
economy in 2016 and could be on a par with the United States by 2040. In
fact, in terms of domestic purchasing power, China's economy could
effectively be as large as America's by 2025. It is already the world's
largest market for more than 100 products such as cell phones, cement,
steel, television sets and machine tools and will soon become the
largest market for almost everything."

Of course, by 2025 the average Chinese will still be much poorer than
the average American. But "small" countries with high per-capita
incomes are still relative "nobodies" globally. How do you feel about a
world in which China is THE economic and military superpower?


Same way I feel about car accidents vs tornadoes.



-- Reply: In fact I read that China's population is more educated=20
than India's, I can be wrong though, didn't check. I was asking as I=20
was surprised you didn't bring India up as counterpoint to China's=20
'unique' or 'invention' of a new political system - of how democracy=20
does not always triumph. From all the stats I've read, China just=20
razes India (on average, don't look at the extreme ends of the=20
distribution). See this, for instance:

http://in.rediff.com/money/2005/sep/27china.htm
-------

You wrote: "Hmm. I note they mentioned female literacy rates, but not
male or
overall average. Why do you suppose that is????"

Reply: Good point, perhaps the liberalization of womanfolk is
considered an 'index of human development'? Checked out the stats
comparing China and India in literacy rates - from CIA factbook:

China:
definition: age 15 and over can read and write
total population: 90.9%
male: 95.1%
female: 86.5% (2002)

India:
definition: age 15 and over can read and write
total population: 59.5%
male: 70.2%
female: 48.3% (2003 est.)

Here's why I gave the edge to India.

"India's emphasis on graduate and post-graduate education as well as the
availability on the India job market of a large pool of people with
excellent English skills offset the disadvantages of a low literacy rate
and weak primary and secondary school education. Moreover, while the
absolute size of the tertiary-educated population in China is higher
than in India, it is much lower as a percentage of population: 5% versus
8% in India. China now adds "only" 1.9 million university graduates a
year (up from 600,000 in 1990), while India adds about 2.3 million
bachelor-degree graduates and some 300,000 engineers."

From:

China and India: the rivals' unequal talent pools

Hillary K. Wood Chan, Egon Zehnder International, Hong Kong and Shanghai

http://www.egonzehnderknowledge.com/...cles/index.php
?article=1903

Robert Frost once said that a liberal is someone who can't take his
side of the argument. From previous discussions, from this discussion,
you seem very keen on trajectories. So where's India's trajectory vs
China's? Didn't you say that you haven't seen any? And did you give
the edge to India? Which is a greater threat to the West now, China or
India?

Frost didn't say anything about people who try to oversimplify
arguments, did he?

Now, China. In the future, both. (And India may well end up a bigger
economy than China.)

Never mind the IQ/human capital difference between India [IQ = 81,
rough estimate, so let's round up to 90] and China [IQ = 100 - 105] (a
topic posted long before, and so will not go over same territory), or
the Deutsche Bank India vs China reports. It looks like India is
having some huge problems....not exactly a 'bottomless well of
engineers'?

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/17/wo...ml?pagewanted=...

TIRUCHENGODE, India - As its technology companies soar to the
outsourcing skies, India is bumping up against an improbable
challenge. In a country once regarded as a bottomless well of low-
cost, ready-to-work, English-speaking engineers, a shortage looms.
India still produces plenty of engineers, nearly 400,000 a year at
last count. But their competence has become the issue........The
skills gap reflects the narrow availability of high-quality college
education in India and the galloping pace of the country's service-
driven economy, which is growing faster than nearly all but China's.
The software and service companies provide technology services to
foreign companies, many of them based in the United States. Software
exports alone expanded by 33 percent in the last year.The university
systems of few countries would be able to keep up with such demand,
and India is certainly having trouble. The best and most selective
universities generate too few graduates, and new private colleges are
producing graduates of uneven quality.

From The Economic Strategy Institute, February 24th, 2006

India vs. China: The Race for the Future

"In sum, if you are a short-term investor, China is probably where you
should put your money. But if you are in it for the long haul, you might
want to bet on India. That certainly seems to be what George Bush is
doing as he heads out this week to make nice with his newest
international friend.

Of course, there is a certain logic in an Indian-Chinese alliance. India
could use China's manufacturing know-how and resource mobilization
capabilities, and China could learn from India about services, start-
ups, and technology. Indeed, when Chinese President Hu Jin Tao visited
India last fall, it was Indian Prime Minister Singh who said: "Together
we will change the world."

Yeah they're the future.

Retort: they'll always be.




You wrote: "Most men don't engage in such activities with their wives
in tow, and
I'm one of them."

Reply: "You don't want to have any regrets on your deathbed
though.......
And the amount of swinging of some of my friends ....well.... let's
just leave it at that. Mind you one of them used me (tipped off by an
elementary schoolfriend, wow, she's a 1st rate actress!) to get back
at her boyfriend once, hehe. And this type of thing may happen more
with Caucasians then high achieving geekish WOW playing East Asians -
my schoolfriend's WASP and that gf is eurasian.
And it's surprisingly how women don't understand men!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/ma...th/2007/01/23/
hlife23.xml&page=1
And Incidentally the default sexual mode for men is serial monogamy or
polygamy, and not strict monogamy."

The way to avoid deathbed regrets is to get the whoring out of your
system by the time you're 30 or 35, before you marry. Whoring around
while married is a formula for turmoil, unhappiness, and deathbed
regrets.

"Always get a prenup" - Donald Trump

Would you believe anyone who uses a comb-over?


$ does trump style you know....