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Old March 27th, 2004, 11:26 PM
Roger Martin
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Default when will property prices fall?

"maxi" wrote in message
...
I wunder when property prices will fall down under?
this cannot go on for ever


The property value cycle is on the way down and there will a lot of bargains
to be had in the next few years as our socially responsible (sic) banks sell
up the owners to recover their funds. The banks will do what they did in the
80s and increase housing rates to their other customers to cover the losses
they incur on their dodgy housing loans. The increases force others into
insolvency and the cycle keeps on going. I remember paying 17% on a
mortgage - god help me.

The other side of the coin is that shares start to look more attractive and
the superannuation investments will start to rise and claw back the capital
losses caused by the housing boom - until housing gets attractive again and
the cycle goes around. Long term its in the government's interests to have
high value for superannuation so reducing the amount of reliance on state
old age pensions (house values being exempt from means testing for
pensions).

The other plus side for renters is that houses are now cheaper than 6 years
ago and often with a/c, pools, etc. Friends are renting a 4 bedroom house
with a pool for $210 a week, I was paying $265 in 1997 for a crappy 3
bedroom.

end rant.
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