Panlop: Military coup possible
WASSANA NANUAM

A military coup may be unavoidable if Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
refuses to budge and political instability persists much longer, said
Panlop Pinmanee, deputy chief of the Internal Security Operations
Command (Isoc).

Gen Panlop predicted political turmoil if Mr Thaksin clings to his
seat. Uncontrollable tension could necessitate a military revolt to
restore national calm, he said.

Gen Panlop was a key figure in Class 7 of the Chulachomklao Royal
Military Academy, whose young turks staged an abortive coup in 1981. A
coup will be motivated not by the desire to overthrow Mr Thaksin or his
opponents, said Gen Panlop.

He believed the soldiers would not want to see protracted turmoil
threaten national security.

The coup may not happen any time soon. "Certainly not today," the
general said, commenting on the likelihood of the anti-Thaksin rally at
Sanam Luang providing the pretext for a revolt.

Gen Panlop said, however, that a coup would not be easy to organise
considering that Mr Thaksin's friends in the armed forces almost
monopolise the power to authorise military deployment.

"When the country is in a shambles, I trust the soldiers will act
professionally and not become the personal protector of the prime
minister or the government," he said.

The Isoc deputy commander praised army chief Sonthi Boonyaratglin for
serving the country well, although some are wondering where his loyalty
lies.

A source, however, said Gen Sonthi has been perceived as taking Mr
Thaksin's side. He is often seen at social gatherings organised in Mr
Thaksin's honour and plays golf with the prime minister. He and other
armed forces leaders reportedly made a pact to meet Mr Thaksin
regularly. But a source in the armed forces said that even if Gen
Sonthi agreed to a "military intervention" the success of a coup could
not be guaranteed.

The army units backing him are special warfare soldiers, most of whom
have now been redeployed as reinforcements fighting separatist
insurgents in the deep South.

The power to mobilise personnel is primarily in the hands of Mr
Thaksin's classmates at the Armed Forces Preparatory School, the source
said.

"There's no way Gen Sonthi's strength alone will get the job done," he
said.

None of the close aides of Privy Council chairman Prem Tinsulanonda are
in key military positions able to call the rank and file to arms. Gen
Panlop said Mr Thaksin should stand down because there have been too
many questions raised about his suitability as leader.