Sri Lankan wants war with the help of US

Colombo promoting Karuna to destroy LTTE – US think tank

http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=12433

[TamilNet, July 14, 2004 12:35 GMT]
Former LTTE Commander Karuna's defection was supported at the highest
levels of the Sri Lankan government with tacit US approval, press
reports quoted US geopolitical analysts as saying this week.
"The plan is to destabilize the Tigers, bait the group into
confrontation and ultimately launch an offensive aimed at destroying
the fractured Tamil movement once and for all," the analysts at
Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor) said quoting unnamed sources inside
the Sri Lankan government.

If Karuna continued his denunciation of the LTTE leadership, it could
result in a renewed round of fighting between the movement and his
group - "something Colombo is not only hoping for, but also is
actively trying to promote," the US analysts, were quoted by UNI as
saying.

"Colombo would like nothing more than to see the Tigers weakened by
internal fighting along with struggles over how the peace process
should be approached," Stratfor said.

That was why, Stratfor said, the Sri Lankan government provided tacit
support to Karuna during his rebellion and still is in regular contact
with him.

Colombo probably hopes a renewed guerrilla war will be tempered by
internal struggles and that, once weakened, the Tigers can be
destroyed, the US analysts said.

Although he denies support was never offered, numerous figures within
the Sri Lankan government have suggested that Colombo is supporting
Karuna, UNI reported.

After being out of sight for three months following the crushing of
his six-week rebellion by the LTTE in an offensive over the Easter
weekend, Karuna resurfaced last week, holding interviews with Sri
Lankan state radio and the BBC's Tamil news service.

"By coming forward after his well-publicized defeat at the hands of
the Tigers, Karuna will likely generate more support for his drive to
oust the Tiger leadership," Stratfor said, arguing Karuna still
enjoyed support in his home Batticaloa district.

Pointing out that during his interview with the BBC, Karuna implied he
would be interested in running for political office, Stratfor said
"[He] probably knows that by returning to the public eye and
expressing an interest in politics, he will become a high-profile
target for Tiger assassins."

"With that in mind, it is possible Karuna intended for his return to
induce infighting and further weaken the Tigers," the US analysts
said.

"But the Tigers have been fighting Colombo for decades, and there is
little chance there will be any resolution [of the renewed conflict]
without considerable bloodshed on both sides."

According to the US analysts, in the event of a renewed war "the
Tigers will likely end up weaker - perhaps no longer in a position to
make the demands for autonomy that helped cause the internal strife in
the first place."

"On the other hand, baiting a wounded tiger could be a dangerous
game," they cautioned.

"With peace talks stalled until the Tigers change their demands or
Colombo gives in, negotiators are in for a long wait."

Stratfor describes itself as "the world's leading private intelligence
firm providing corporations, governments and individuals with
geopolitical analysis and forecasts that enable them to manage risk
and to anticipate political, economic and security issues vital to
their interests."

What does this have to do with rec.travel.air? Another troll. . . .
"LionScrewer" wrote in message
om...
Colombo promoting Karuna to destroy LTTE - US think tank

http://www.tamilnet.com/art.html?catid=13&artid=12433

[TamilNet, July 14, 2004 12:35 GMT]
Former LTTE Commander Karuna's defection was supported at the highest
levels of the Sri Lankan government with tacit US approval, press
reports quoted US geopolitical analysts as saying this week.
"The plan is to destabilize the Tigers, bait the group into
confrontation and ultimately launch an offensive aimed at destroying
the fractured Tamil movement once and for all," the analysts at
Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor) said quoting unnamed sources inside
the Sri Lankan government.

If Karuna continued his denunciation of the LTTE leadership, it could
result in a renewed round of fighting between the movement and his
group - "something Colombo is not only hoping for, but also is
actively trying to promote," the US analysts, were quoted by UNI as
saying.

"Colombo would like nothing more than to see the Tigers weakened by
internal fighting along with struggles over how the peace process
should be approached," Stratfor said.

That was why, Stratfor said, the Sri Lankan government provided tacit
support to Karuna during his rebellion and still is in regular contact
with him.

Colombo probably hopes a renewed guerrilla war will be tempered by
internal struggles and that, once weakened, the Tigers can be
destroyed, the US analysts said.

Although he denies support was never offered, numerous figures within
the Sri Lankan government have suggested that Colombo is supporting
Karuna, UNI reported.

After being out of sight for three months following the crushing of
his six-week rebellion by the LTTE in an offensive over the Easter
weekend, Karuna resurfaced last week, holding interviews with Sri
Lankan state radio and the BBC's Tamil news service.

"By coming forward after his well-publicized defeat at the hands of
the Tigers, Karuna will likely generate more support for his drive to
oust the Tiger leadership," Stratfor said, arguing Karuna still
enjoyed support in his home Batticaloa district.

Pointing out that during his interview with the BBC, Karuna implied he
would be interested in running for political office, Stratfor said
"[He] probably knows that by returning to the public eye and
expressing an interest in politics, he will become a high-profile
target for Tiger assassins."

"With that in mind, it is possible Karuna intended for his return to
induce infighting and further weaken the Tigers," the US analysts
said.

"But the Tigers have been fighting Colombo for decades, and there is
little chance there will be any resolution [of the renewed conflict]
without considerable bloodshed on both sides."

According to the US analysts, in the event of a renewed war "the
Tigers will likely end up weaker - perhaps no longer in a position to
make the demands for autonomy that helped cause the internal strife in
the first place."

"On the other hand, baiting a wounded tiger could be a dangerous
game," they cautioned.

"With peace talks stalled until the Tigers change their demands or
Colombo gives in, negotiators are in for a long wait."

Stratfor describes itself as "the world's leading private intelligence
firm providing corporations, governments and individuals with
geopolitical analysis and forecasts that enable them to manage risk
and to anticipate political, economic and security issues vital to
their interests."