Flying Us Air Oct7-Should i be concerned

I am booked on Oct 7 returning Oct 16th. Any one think i should be
concerned on them folding by then? Any thoughts on this ,do you think
they will continue on at least til the end of the year. Thanks

wrote:
I am booked on Oct 7 returning Oct 16th. Any one think i should be
concerned on them folding by then? Any thoughts on this ,do you think
they will continue on at least til the end of the year. Thanks

Oct 16th is essentially 3 weeks from now. Considering that they just entered
bankrupcy, I don't think that 3weeks is sufficient for the judge or creditors
to come to the conclusion that US Air is a hopeless case and should be folded.

At this point in time, I would not book any flights past the first week of
November though, not because I think they will have stopped by then, but
simply because there is no "visibility" that far ahead and we have no idea yet
of what this second bankrupcy is all about.

They should have gotten the unions to agree to concessions to bring US Air's
workforce to the same levsls as JetBlue back in the first bankrupcy. (assuming
this is all that is left at US Air that prevents it from being low cost). If
union concessions are the only items that really need to be negotiated, then
liquidation would occur with a fair amount of warning.

For instance, US Air creditors would threathen to liquidate if the uniuosn
don't agree to $X in concessions by date which would normally be a week or
two ahead. The unions, in their theatrical selves, will wait until 23:59
before agreeing to the cuts at the very last minute. If they do not, then you
could see the airline shut down immediatly.

It also depends on how close to target the airline is. If, for instance, they
have secured agreements from almost all groups, but there are one or two
groups who still refuse, then it is less likely to see liquidation materialise
even of they miss the deadline. But if all unions still steadfastedly refuse,
liquidation becomes a real possibility.

Another metric to watch is how much cash they still have at hand. I believe
the bankrupcy judge will publish those statistics. You can expect to see US
Air skip a few lease payments to build cash reserves. Nevertheless, if it gets
to a point where it can no longer pay for fuel, it will be forced to shut down.

Note that Swissair had shutdown for a few days and restarted operations after
it got some temporary funding before finally folding some time later. So it
isn't impossible that US Air would restart ops a few days later if it managed
to secure some loan to pay for fuel etc. However, contrary to Swissair where
the government gave the funding, in the USA, the saviour would only come to
the rescue with an emergency loan if and only if the union negotiations had a
very positive outlook.

wrote:
I am booked on Oct 7 returning Oct 16th. Any one think i should be
concerned on them folding by then? Any thoughts on this ,do you think
they will continue on at least til the end of the year. Thanks

Oct 16th is essentially 3 weeks from now. Considering that they just entered
bankrupcy, I don't think that 3weeks is sufficient for the judge or creditors
to come to the conclusion that US Air is a hopeless case and should be folded.

At this point in time, I would not book any flights past the first week of
November though, not because I think they will have stopped by then, but
simply because there is no "visibility" that far ahead and we have no idea yet
of what this second bankrupcy is all about.

They should have gotten the unions to agree to concessions to bring US Air's
workforce to the same levsls as JetBlue back in the first bankrupcy. (assuming
this is all that is left at US Air that prevents it from being low cost). If
union concessions are the only items that really need to be negotiated, then
liquidation would occur with a fair amount of warning.

For instance, US Air creditors would threathen to liquidate if the uniuosn
don't agree to $X in concessions by date which would normally be a week or
two ahead. The unions, in their theatrical selves, will wait until 23:59
before agreeing to the cuts at the very last minute. If they do not, then you
could see the airline shut down immediatly.

It also depends on how close to target the airline is. If, for instance, they
have secured agreements from almost all groups, but there are one or two
groups who still refuse, then it is less likely to see liquidation materialise
even of they miss the deadline. But if all unions still steadfastedly refuse,
liquidation becomes a real possibility.

Another metric to watch is how much cash they still have at hand. I believe
the bankrupcy judge will publish those statistics. You can expect to see US
Air skip a few lease payments to build cash reserves. Nevertheless, if it gets
to a point where it can no longer pay for fuel, it will be forced to shut down.

Note that Swissair had shutdown for a few days and restarted operations after
it got some temporary funding before finally folding some time later. So it
isn't impossible that US Air would restart ops a few days later if it managed
to secure some loan to pay for fuel etc. However, contrary to Swissair where
the government gave the funding, in the USA, the saviour would only come to
the rescue with an emergency loan if and only if the union negotiations had a
very positive outlook.

"nobody" wrote in message
...
wrote:
I am booked on Oct 7 returning Oct 16th. Any one think i should be
concerned on them folding by then? Any thoughts on this ,do you think
they will continue on at least til the end of the year. Thanks

Oct 16th is essentially 3 weeks from now. Considering that they just
entered
bankrupcy, I don't think that 3weeks is sufficient for the judge or
creditors
to come to the conclusion that US Air is a hopeless case and should be
folded.

I agree, but note that bankruptcy is a court process. Nobody is going to
say: "Shut Down Immediately" - there has to be a hearing, and the
bankruptcy rules allow a minimum of 20 days between the application to force
them to shut down and the actual hearing. So unless US wants to shut down,
they are probably okay through October (and maybe even through November).

At this point in time, I would not book any flights past the first week of
November though, not because I think they will have stopped by then, but
simply because there is no "visibility" that far ahead and we have no idea
yet
of what this second bankrupcy is all about.

They should have gotten the unions to agree to concessions to bring US
Air's
workforce to the same levsls as JetBlue back in the first bankrupcy.
(assuming
this is all that is left at US Air that prevents it from being low cost).
If
union concessions are the only items that really need to be negotiated,
then
liquidation would occur with a fair amount of warning.

For instance, US Air creditors would threathen to liquidate if the uniuosn
don't agree to $X in concessions by date which would normally be a week
or
two ahead. The unions, in their theatrical selves, will wait until 23:59
before agreeing to the cuts at the very last minute. If they do not, then
you
could see the airline shut down immediatly.

It also depends on how close to target the airline is. If, for instance,
they
have secured agreements from almost all groups, but there are one or two
groups who still refuse, then it is less likely to see liquidation
materialise
even of they miss the deadline. But if all unions still steadfastedly
refuse,
liquidation becomes a real possibility.

Another metric to watch is how much cash they still have at hand. I
believe
the bankrupcy judge will publish those statistics. You can expect to see
US
Air skip a few lease payments to build cash reserves. Nevertheless, if it
gets
to a point where it can no longer pay for fuel, it will be forced to shut
down.

They entered bankruptcy with about $750 Million in cash, and they were given
permission to use cash collateral (for the federally guaranteed loan they
have)

Note that Swissair had shutdown for a few days and restarted operations
after
it got some temporary funding before finally folding some time later.

So did Continental years ago when Lorenzo filed. But U.S. laws are
different than Swiss ones.

So it
isn't impossible that US Air would restart ops a few days later if it
managed
to secure some loan to pay for fuel etc. However, contrary to Swissair
where
the government gave the funding, in the USA, the saviour would only come
to
the rescue with an emergency loan if and only if the union negotiations
had a
very positive outlook.