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France is getting hotter



 
 
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  #1  
Old December 17th, 2003, 07:10 PM
Earl Evleth
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Default France is getting hotter




Another Bushie bętise, helping heating
the planet.

France has been heating more than the world average.

Earl

****




Hot Spot in 2003? The Earth, U.N. Says
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

Published: December 17, 2003


ENEVA, Dec. 16 (AP) ‹ The year 2003, marked by a sweltering summer and
drought across large swaths of the planet, was the third hottest in nearly
150 years, the United Nations weather agency said Tuesday.

The World Meteorological Organization estimated the average surface
temperature for the year to be 0.81 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the
normal 25.2 degrees ‹ a number skewed toward the low side because it
includes polar regions.

The agency said warmer weather could not be attributed to any single cause
but was part of a trend that global warming was likely to prolong.

The agency, which collects data worldwide, said the three hottest years
since accurate records began to be kept in 1861 had all been in the last six
years.

The hottest was 1998, when the average temperature was up 0.99 degrees.

"The rhythm of temperature increases is accelerating," said the agency's
deputy secretary general, Michel Jarraud.



  #2  
Old December 18th, 2003, 02:18 AM
Charles Hawtrey
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Default France is getting hotter

Earl Evleth staggered to the nearest keyboard and
wrote:




Another Bushie bętise, helping heating
the planet.

France has been heating more than the world average.


Has France really been heating more than the world average? You had a
hot summer in 2003 but that doesn't make a trend.

Usually climate change (whether natural or human-caused) is strongest
in polar and sub-arctic regions, because of ice-albedo feedback.


--
hambu n hambu hodo
  #3  
Old December 18th, 2003, 09:25 AM
Earl Evleth
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Default France is getting hotter

On 18/12/03 2:18, in article , "Charles
Hawtrey" wrote:

Has France really been heating more than the world average?



The average temperature increase in France has exceed the global
value. I have not found the numbers again but they are around.
This is measured for the last 100 years or so. An approximate
figure is that the global warming might be 0.5 degrees C but
France's is about 1.

Curiously some predictions had been for a temperature drop in
northern Europe. That projection was made on the basis of
an expected change in the Gulf stream and the "conveyor belt"
distribution world wide. The warm waters of the Gulf stream eventually
cool and drop the water being recycled at great depths back south.
This means less warming of Europe and therefore a cooler climate.
In addition melting off the Greenland ice cap will produce less salty
water in the North Atlantic, favoring an sooner blocking of the saltier
water from the south. But the complicating factor is the ice mass
in Greenland, rapid temperature changes have occurred in the past
in this region. So a flip-flop change is possible.

Past paleoclimatic temperature measurements during warming periods show
cooling in some isolated regions. So one can have global warming with
cooling in some isolated regions.

In recent years France has had severe storms in the south of the country
in the Fall. This has been attributed to a slight warming in the
Mediterranean, putting more water into the air. When the Fall weather
patterns drive this moist air north it hits the cooler weather from
the north. In addition, the shape of the Rhone Valley, with
high land masses on both sides favors the cool air masses
colliding and dumping the rain in the South rather than
nationwide. At other times of the years, that weather engine
generates the Mistrals, several days of wind roaring down the Rhone Valley
into the south.

France has a complex weather situation, since weather can arrive also
from the Atlantic, the North Sea and from Russia from across Germany.
There for it is no surprise that the long term prediction of the effect
of global warming on France is ify. The same situation is true in
your region, what is the projected weather future of the Sonora Dessert?
Will you have more rain or less rain? Basically, weather is not climate
and therefore one should disregard local variations. What one can be more
confident in saying it that global warming will likely produce
changes in local weather.

The last point is that politically there is no debate in Europe, especially
in France, that global warming is occurring. So the attitudes are different
and touring Americans might like to know that many issues do not
enter on the political agendas in Europe that do in the US.

Earl

  #4  
Old December 18th, 2003, 09:51 AM
Tim Challenger
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Default France is getting hotter

France has been heating more than the world average.

Has France really been heating more than the world average? You had a
hot summer in 2003 but that doesn't make a trend.


You didn't actually read the snippet that Earl posted, did you?
--
Tim.

If the human brain were simple enough that we could understand it, we would
be so simple that we couldn't.
  #5  
Old December 18th, 2003, 10:18 AM
Reid
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Default France is getting hotter

Following up to Earl Evleth

Curiously some predictions had been for a temperature drop in
northern Europe. That projection was made on the basis of
an expected change in the Gulf stream and the "conveyor belt"
distribution world wide.


I was listening to a programme the other day where they said the
failure of The Gulf Stream/N Atlantic drift, although possible,
was long odds.
--
Mike Reid
"Art is the lie that reveals the truth" P.Picasso
Walking-food-photos, Wasdale, Thames, London etc "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" -- you can email us@ this site
and same for Spain at "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" -- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
  #6  
Old December 18th, 2003, 10:24 AM
Go Fig
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Default France is getting hotter

In article ,
Earl Evleth wrote:

The last point is that politically there is no debate in Europe, especially
in France, that global warming is occurring. So the attitudes are different
and touring Americans might like to know that many issues do not
enter on the political agendas in Europe that do in the US.

Earl


Lets see, Kyoto was drafted in '99 and today its almost '04... but no,
there's no political debate.

Good grief, who do you think is buying this statement of yours ?

Further, it is not that temperatures are getting warmer, it is why!

jay
Thu, Dec 18, 2003


--

Legend insists that as he finished his abject...
Galileo muttered under his breath: "Nevertheless, it does move."
  #7  
Old December 18th, 2003, 10:58 AM
Reid
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Default France is getting hotter

Following up to Earl Evleth

The last point is that politically there is no debate in Europe, especially
in France, that global warming is occurring. So the attitudes are different
and touring Americans might like to know that many issues do not
enter on the political agendas in Europe that do in the US.


Eh?
A "touring american" is likely to bump into a european
environmentalist who will want to discuss Kyoto with him.
Is it the US or Europe that has "green" parties?
Surely if anyone is ignoring global warming its the US?
--
Mike Reid
"Art is the lie that reveals the truth" P.Picasso
Walking-food-photos, Wasdale, Thames, London etc "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" -- you can email us@ this site
and same for Spain at "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" -- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap
  #8  
Old December 18th, 2003, 12:21 PM
Earl Evleth
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Default France is getting hotter

On 18/12/03 9:51, in article
, "Tim Challenger"
"timothy(dot)challenger(at)apk(dot)at" wrote:

You didn't actually read the snippet that Earl posted, did you?


Nothing is completely accurate in the press, I was adding my
own comments.

Journalists can be divided into several classes. A small number
of them really know their stuff, having studied a particular
area for years. For instance, Fox Butterfield of the NY Times
is very good on crime. He wrote a credible book łAll God`s Children, The
Bosket Family and the American Tradition of Violence˛ (New York, Kropf,
1995) which is often cited in the academic literature.

Others have a few days to gather information on a story, they may never have
covered the subject before but write an accurate appearing article.

My wife once did this on a dare. She wrote an article, in French, on
wild turkey hunting in the US. It was accepted and published in a leading
French hunting magazine. She has never been hunting and knew nothing
before about wild turkey hunting. She happened to be in upstate NY,
at Cornell, for a visit and the person who she was visiting happened
to say "you ought to write an article in wild turkey hunting", since
he was a wild turkey hunter (and Professor at Cornell). My wife laughed
and said she knew nothing about it. So the Prof sent her off to
"Claire"s Huntin' and Shootin"" store in the countryside where she had
a chance to interview some "good old boys". She got some photos, and dashed
off a credible article. Journalists get assignments and go do a story,
they have a dead line and a limited number of words to write. They have
to write something their editor will accept. They may get some points wrong,
most of them right but it will be written in a credible fashion, it has to
be readable and believable. But anybody who has personal experience with
a particular story is usually a little shocked at the liberties journalists
take. Some Presidents are even worse.

Earl

  #9  
Old December 18th, 2003, 12:34 PM
Earl Evleth
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Default France is getting hotter

On 18/12/03 10:18, in article ,
"Reid" wrote:

I was listening to a programme the other day where they said the
failure of The Gulf Stream/N Atlantic drift, although possible,
was long odds.



I hope so. There is a lot of "academic" information on the web, like
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html, good graphics, etc. It is
often not organized totally into a coherent analysis only a good book
or several will do that. But also in this whole area thee are
some misleading "think tanks" which not academic at all, some connected
with special interests.

I only got the impression that the Gulf stream shift was one of the
possible scenarios, not a long odds one. I will do some looking.
So far nothing is happening along those lines.

That Europe could get colder is the preferred scenario for the man
who has a fur store in our neighborhood, Monsieur Lagache. In
fact when the weather turns cold I usually drop by to accuse him
of being a "profiteur" of such climatic events. Perhaps even
one of "les responsables" ("a qui profite le crime?").

Earl



 




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