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NYT: Ugly Airline Math: Planes Late, Fliers Even Later
New York Times
July 5, 2007 Ugly Airline Math: Planes Late, Fliers Even Later By JEFF BAILEY and NATE SCHWEBER As Northwest Airlines counts it, Janis Cavinder endured a two-hour delay during a quick trip to London to celebrate the Fourth of July with a college roommate. But by her count, it was a full-day ordeal that diverted her to Newark and ended last night with a flight on another airline. Ms. Cavinder, a 27-year-old Air Force captain who is headed to Afghanistan soon, missed a connection after her first flight from San Diego to Detroit. That led to the diversion to Newark and a six-hour layover. She made the best of it, quickly visiting the Statue of Liberty and ground zero, but felt sorry for her friend, a fellow Air Force officer, who was alone for the holiday in London. ³We were going to be the Americans in London celebrating the Fourth. Now we¹re going to be celebrating the Fifth,² said Ms. Cavinder, of Abilene, Tex., who finally made a Continental Airlines flight. As anyone who has flown recently can probably tell you, delays are getting worse this year. The on-time performance of airlines has reached an all-time low, but even the official numbers do not begin to capture the severity of the problem. That is because these statistics track how late airplanes are, not how late passengers are. The longest delays ‹ those resulting from missed connections and canceled flights ‹ involve sitting around for hours or even days in airports and hotels and do not officially get counted. Researchers and consumer advocates have taken notice and urged more accurate reporting. Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology did a study several years ago and found that when missed connections and flight cancellations are factored in, the average wait was two-thirds longer than the official statistic. They also determined that as planes become more crowded ‹ and jets have never been as jammed as they are today ‹ the delays grow much longer because it becomes harder to find a seat on a later flight. That finding prompted the M.I.T. researchers to dust off their study, which they are updating now. But with domestic flights running 85 to 90 percent full, meaning that virtually all planes on desirable routes are full, Cynthia Barnhart, an M.I.T. professor who studies transportation systems, has a pretty good idea of what the new research will show when it is completed this fall: ³There will be severe increases in delays,² she said. About 32 percent of domestic passengers connect from one flight to another to reach their destination, according to Transportation Department data analyzed by Back Aviation Solutions, a consulting firm. Virginia Russell, a packaging designer who lives in Brooklyn, officially had just a two-hour delay on her evening flight from Newark to Cleveland in February. But after missing her connection to fly on to New Orleans, where she had landed an invitation for the first time to attend the elaborate Zulu Coronation as part of the Mardi Gras celebrations, her actual delay was about 13 hours, Ms. Russell said. Unable to put to use the Greek-goddess-style ball gown she had hand-sewn for the occasion, Ms. Russell consoled herself with a pulled pork sandwich and a piece of seven-layer chocolate cake from room service at a Holiday Inn near the Cleveland Airport. Over all, this could be a dreadful summer to fly. In the first five months of 2007, more than a quarter of all flights within the United States arrived at least 15 minutes late. And more of those flights were delayed for long stretches, an average of 39 percent longer than a year earlier. Moreover, in addition to crowded flights, the usual disruptive summer thunderstorms and an overtaxed air traffic control system, travelers could encounter some very grumpy airline employees; after taking big pay cuts and watching airline executives reap some big bonuses, many workers are fed up. Some other airline delay statistics, meanwhile, are getting a fresh look, as well. After thousands of passengers were stranded for hours on tarmacs in New York and Texas this past winter, consumer advocates began complaining that Transportation Department data does not accurately track such meltdowns. If a flight taxies out, sits for hours, and then taxies back in and is canceled, the delay is not recorded. Likewise, flights diverted to cities other than their destination are not figured into delay statistics. ³The full picture is a lot worse² than the data compiled from airlines by the government, said Paul Hudson, executive director of the Aviation Consumer Action Project, founded by Ralph Nader. The Transportation Department held a public meeting on some of the delay statistics related to stranded flights last month and is now accepting public comments on whether it should tighten airline reporting criteria. Ms. Barnhart of M.I.T. said the earlier work, based on examining all the passenger itineraries on Continental Airlines for August 2000, found that the average delay for all flights reported to the Transportation Department was 15.4 minutes. But including time lost to missed connections and canceled flights ‹ those unfortunate passengers averaged more than a five-hour delay ‹ the overall average delay was 25.6 minutes, or 66 percent higher. Ms. Barnhart would like to see the Transportation Department and the airlines perhaps focus on delays of 45 minutes or more, which cause missed connections and other more severe inconveniences than the widely followed 15-minute cutoff for being classified as being on time. And she said actual passenger delays ‹ taking into account missed connections and canceled flights ‹ should be compiled to give travelers a clearer picture of what happens. About 30 percent to 35 percent of Continental¹s passengers make connections between flights. A spokeswoman, Julie King, said the airline tries to minimize both short delays and longer ones. She added that Continental¹s only complaint about the Transportation Department statistics is that many delays are caused by weather and thus do not reflect the airline¹s performance. Continental operates big hubs in Houston and Newark and one day last week, 1,658 passengers missed connections, which was 4.29 percent of those connecting. That is a typical level of missed connections, but Continental¹s flights that day were 89.6 percent full, so finding seats on later flights for some passengers was difficult. The airline alters its schedule when flights chronically lead to missed connections. For instance, it recently extended by 10 minutes minimum connection times in Houston for passengers traveling from Panama City, Panama, because some were not clearing customs in time. Continental also has a new system that sends e-mail messages ‹ and, beginning next month, text messages to cellphones ‹ informing connecting passengers on late flights how they have been rebooked. It also is moving ticket kiosks inside the security area so passengers can print new boarding passes without going out to the main ticketing area or having to wait in line for a gate agent to help them. The system, however, rebooks people on the next available flight with a confirmed open seat and that is not always as soon as people might expect. Some are told their new departure is in three days. ³That causes them to go berserk,² said David Grizzle, a senior vice president at Continental. Often, on standby, people get out sooner, he said. Last week, Fran Jolly, a customer service coordinator in Continental¹s operations center in downtown Houston, was working to rebook about 50 passengers on a Hamburg, Germany, flight to Newark, delayed nine hours by a broken window. Eight Denver-bound passengers would wait around for a 2:45 p.m. flight the next day ‹ a 24-hour delay. Late, of course, is better than not at all. So, with planes so full, Continental at times decides to hold connecting flights for late-arriving passengers because no seats are available on later flights. A Houston-to-Guayaquil, Ecuador, flight last week was held for two-and-a-half hours so that 35 passengers on a delayed flight out of New York could make the connection. For those who can¹t get on a same-day flight, Continental arranges hotel rooms ‹ the airline pays for rooms for mechanical delays, the passenger for weather delays. And about twice a month, said Rhonda Henrichsen, a Continental manager who handles missed connections, there are not enough hotel rooms in the area. The airline then drags out some of its 600 cots so passengers can bed down in the terminal. Her co-workers call it the ³Hotel Rhonda.² http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/05/business/05late.html |
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NYT: Ugly Airline Math: Planes Late, Fliers Even Later
On Jul 5, 2:11 am, Coatzocoalcos wrote:
New York Times July 5, 2007 Ugly Airline Math: Planes Late, Fliers Even Later By JEFF BAILEY and NATE SCHWEBER As Northwest Airlines counts it, Janis Cavinder endured a two-hour delay during a quick trip to London to celebrate the Fourth of July with a college roommate. But by her count, it was a full-day ordeal that diverted her to Newark and ended last night with a flight on another airline. Ms. Cavinder, a 27-year-old Air Force captain who is headed to Afghanistan soon, missed a connection after her first flight from San Diego to Detroit. That led to the diversion to Newark and a six-hour layover. She made the best of it, quickly visiting the Statue of Liberty and ground zero, but felt sorry for her friend, a fellow Air Force officer, who was alone for the holiday in London. ³We were going to be the Americans in London celebrating the Fourth. Now we¹re going to be celebrating the Fifth,² said Ms. Cavinder, of Abilene, Tex., who finally made a Continental Airlines flight. As anyone who has flown recently can probably tell you, delays are getting worse this year. The on-time performance of airlines has reached an all-time low, but even the official numbers do not begin to capture the severity of the problem. Weather and the "G-Word" (greed). That's what causes delays. Period. Airlines have been adding flights since day one (that would be like back in the 1950's or so..). Airlines are forever trying to expand- like every other business on the planet. But in this industry, there comes a point where expansion is a bad thing for consumers. The airlines went past that point decades ago. |
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NYT: Ugly Airline Math: Planes Late, Fliers Even Later
On Fri, 06 Jul 2007 01:53:37 -0000, rst wrote:
On Jul 5, 2:11 am, Coatzocoalcos wrote: New York Times July 5, 2007 Ugly Airline Math: Planes Late, Fliers Even Later By JEFF BAILEY and NATE SCHWEBER As Northwest Airlines counts it, Janis Cavinder endured a two-hour delay during a quick trip to London to celebrate the Fourth of July with a college roommate. But by her count, it was a full-day ordeal that diverted her to Newark and ended last night with a flight on another airline. Ms. Cavinder, a 27-year-old Air Force captain who is headed to Afghanistan soon, missed a connection after her first flight from San Diego to Detroit. That led to the diversion to Newark and a six-hour layover. She made the best of it, quickly visiting the Statue of Liberty and ground zero, but felt sorry for her friend, a fellow Air Force officer, who was alone for the holiday in London. ³We were going to be the Americans in London celebrating the Fourth. Now we¹re going to be celebrating the Fifth,² said Ms. Cavinder, of Abilene, Tex., who finally made a Continental Airlines flight. As anyone who has flown recently can probably tell you, delays are getting worse this year. The on-time performance of airlines has reached an all-time low, but even the official numbers do not begin to capture the severity of the problem. Weather and the "G-Word" (greed). That's what causes delays. Period. Airlines have been adding flights since day one (that would be like back in the 1950's or so..). Airlines are forever trying to expand- like every other business on the planet. But in this industry, there comes a point where expansion is a bad thing for consumers. The airlines went past that point decades ago. Something I am curious about is how willing are airlines to put you in a seat in a higher class if that gets you out on the next flight, or are they likely to pretend those empty seats in first and business aren't there and tell you your next flight out is Tuesday? I know Eliites and such will get bumped but I am wondering just how often the run of the mill gets moved up as opposed to having to cool your heels for a day or so. Jim P. |
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