Airbus Misses a Paradigm Shift

Samizdata.net has some interesting takes on the Airbus-Boeing history
and prospects for future developments.

Airbus Misses a Paradigm Shift
http://www.samizdata.net/blog/archiv..._misses_a.html

There was an interesting article in the Atlanta newspaper www.ajc.com
yesterday or the day before about the Lockheed competitor of the
Airbus.

The Lockheed product is very important to the Atlanta area economy.

I'll thus try to link/post it, because it compares the planes, and thus
is interesting for several reasons.

For instance: The horsepower of the Lockheed is approximately half of
the horsepower of the larger Airbus, and perhaps the old American
design uses proportionally less fuel than the newer European Airbus per
pound transported (?).

Here's the article:

http://www.ajc.com/search/content/bu...8bizjumbo.html

Woes at Airbus may benefit Lockheed Martin

By DAVE HIRSCHMAN
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Published on: 07/18/06

Delays in aircraft deliveries, cost overruns and executive turmoil at
Airbus Industrie have boosted rival Boeing in recent weeks - and
Lockheed Martin's C-130J may benefit, too.

So far, Airbus' misfortune has centered on its A380s, a massive
commercial jet designed to carry 550 passengers on long-haul,
international flights, and the A350, which is being redesigned at an
additional cost of about $5 billion. The European consortium says its
planned military transport, the A400M, is on track and unaffected by
the dark clouds surrounding Airbus commercial jets.


File
(ENLARGE)
Because of Airbus' problems, there is more interest from foreign
customers in the C-130J, made by Lockheed Martin in Marietta.

But Lockheed officials say military aircraft buyers around the world
are becoming more skeptical of Airbus timetables and price projections
for its A400M - and that is creating new sales opportunities for the
venerable C-130J Hercules transports made in Cobb County.

"A lot of doors are opening for us," said Peter Simmons, a Lockheed
spokesman who represents the boxy transports built in Marietta for 50
years. "We're starting out with a proven airlifter, and Airbus is
starting with nothing. There's general concern about whether they'll be
able to deliver."

Airbus says its A400M will make its first flight in 2008 and deliveries
are set to begin in 2009. The company has 192 firm orders for the
planes from seven European countries, South Africa and Malaysia. The
A400M is significantly larger than even the stretched version of the
C-130J, and it's projected to fly higher and faster and carry more
cargo than its American rival.

"The A400M is on schedule," said Kristi Tucker, an Airbus spokeswoman.
"Production delays are only on the A380. Our A400M production line is
totally separate."

Richard Aboulafia, aerospace analyst at the Teal Group, said potential
A400M customers have "legitimate cause for worry," however.

The A380 is more than one year late and billions of dollars over
budget, and high-profile launch customer Singapore Airlines recently
cut its orders for the oversized jet in favor of Boeing's more
fuel-efficient 787 Dreamliner. A380 buyers Quantas, Malaysian Airlines
and Emirates Air also said they are evaluating their options.

The A350, designed as a fuel-efficient, relatively low-cost Boeing
alternative, is being redesigned and won't enter airline service until
2011 - four years after Boeing's 787.

Noel Forgeard, co-CEO at Airbus' corporate parent, European Aeronautic
Defense and Space, and Airbus CEO Gustav Humbert resigned under
pressure after the latest round of A380 delays were announced.

"Customer perception of Airbus management is a concern," Aboulafia
said. "They've got to wonder whether they are reliable, whether they
can execute. Do they have the engineering talent to do all the things
they're trying to do? There are valid reasons to be skeptical."

Lockheed and its C-130J haven't had any shortage of problems, either.

The Pentagon nearly scrapped the entire program last year, and Sen.
John McCain (R-Ariz.) has been a powerful critic. McCain insisted that
the C-130J, developed as a commercial airplane in the 1990s, adhere to
the same contracting standards as other military programs, and Lockheed
has taken months to comply.

About 1,800 Lockheed employees in Marietta work on the C-130J assembly
line.

Aboulafia said Lockheed is becoming increasingly aggressive pitching
the C-130J overseas.

The planes have a sticker price of about $72 million each, but buyers
typically get discounts by purchasing multiple aircraft and related
services.

Canada is likely to decide this year what kinds of planes it will buy
to replace its fleet of 40-year-old C-130s. Other U.S. allies including
Israel are facing similar choices.

Lockheed's Simmons said he expects most will choose a "known quantity"
in the C-130J.

"Our airplane has been proving itself every day in some of the most
hostile environments in the world," he said. "Theirs is question mark."


COMPARING PLANES



............A-400M....................C-130J



Wing span..138 feet, 4 inches........132 feet, 7 inches



Length ....138 feet, 11 inches ......97 feet, 9 inches



Height ....48 feet, 4 inches ........38 feet, 10 inches




Engines....4 Rolls-Royce turboprops..4 Allison turboprops



............(9,250 horsepower)........(4,591 horsepower)



Price......$85 million ..............$70 million



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auzerais wrote:
Samizdata.net has some interesting takes on the Airbus-Boeing history
and prospects for future developments.

Airbus Misses a Paradigm Shift
http://www.samizdata.net/blog/archiv..._misses_a.html

Since Boeing and Airbus must design their aircraft based on their best
projection for the future, it is not difficult to see where a new
aircraft design might fail. Boeing bet on lighter weight composite
materials while Airbus looked to grab the market for long haul air
travel -- an aircraft which would cram in the maximum number of
passengers. With the cost of a barrel of oil now around $70, Boeing's
lighter weight design has presently come ahead as the winner. Although
Airbus has yet to be counted out.

Established industries always face a difficulty in matching their
development to meet the market. For example, it has taken too long for
American car manufacturers to recognize that gas guzzlers are likely
not to be the future trend. For the serious problems at GM, it was
nothing less than popping the clutch during a paradigm shift. And
demonstrates that regardless of the industry, a business cannot always
force a market change to accommodate their inventory.

This is a question for fact:

There've been beaucoup mergers here in the late 20th, early 21st
centruries:

Is Boeing now merged with Lockheed-Martin?

Just an opinion wrote:
Since Boeing and Airbus must design their aircraft based on their best
projection for the future, it is not difficult to see where a new
aircraft design might fail. Boeing bet on lighter weight composite
materials while Airbus looked to grab the market for long haul air
travel -- an aircraft which would cram in the maximum number of
passengers. With the cost of a barrel of oil now around $70, Boeing's
lighter weight design has presently come ahead as the winner. Although
Airbus has yet to be counted out.

Established industries always face a difficulty in matching their
development to meet the market. For example, it has taken too long for
American car manufacturers to recognize that gas guzzlers are likely
not to be the future trend. For the serious problems at GM, it was
nothing less than popping the clutch during a paradigm shift. And
demonstrates that regardless of the industry, a business cannot always
force a market change to accommodate their inventory.

Robert Cohen wrote:
This is a question for fact:

There've been beaucoup mergers here in the late 20th, early 21st
centruries:

Is Boeing now merged with Lockheed-Martin?
[snip]

No, and probably would not be allowed. LM was prevented
from merging with Northrup (before they merged with Grumman).
You've seen probably as much contraction in this industry as
you'll see for a while. Boeing is now
Boeing/MacDonald/Douglas/Vought........

writes:

LM was prevented from merging with Northrup (before they
merged with Grumman). ^^^^^^^^


It's *Northrop.* Why do so many people spell it with a "u"
instead of an "o?"

While I'm at it, it's _Dunlop_, not "Dunlap," and _Cummins_,
Not "Cummings." Oh, and _peripheral_, not "periphial."

Grumble.




Geoff

--
"This is how Bush 'intimidates' the press? The level of intimidation
I had in mind is more along the lines of how President Dwight D.
Eisenhower 'intimidated' Julius and Ethel Rosenberg at 8 in the
morning, June 19, 1953." -- Ann Coulter

not plagarized from HARBRACE HANDY HAHABOOK of WORSER GRAMMER, the
terminating final edition:

10. irregardless (Ya know, I don't hardly hear this no more)
9. your (for "you are" as per, "you are cheatin heart")
8. I don't like nobody (instead of, "I do not like any known body")
7. It is me (because it don't sound as snooty as, "It is I")
6.--1. It's "we," not "us." (Correcting confusion)
0. Who's on First?

Geoff Miller wrote:
writes:

LM was prevented from merging with Northrup (before they
merged with Grumman). ^^^^^^^^


It's *Northrop.* Why do so many people spell it with a "u"
instead of an "o?"

While I'm at it, it's _Dunlop_, not "Dunlap," and _Cummins_,
Not "Cummings." Oh, and _peripheral_, not "periphial."

Grumble.




Geoff

--
"This is how Bush 'intimidates' the press? The level of intimidation
I had in mind is more along the lines of how President Dwight D.
Eisenhower 'intimidated' Julius and Ethel Rosenberg at 8 in the
morning, June 19, 1953." -- Ann Coulter