Hurricane Season 2004--please read

O.K., opinions differ on whether trip insurance is good or worthless.
But there is another question lurking he

Should hurricane season or predictions be a factor in your choice to
purchase trip insurance?

My answer is no. Even in the hight of a bad hurricane season, the chances
that a particular location will have a hurricane in a particular 7-10
day span remains very low.

So I would say, if yoy like trip insurance, but it; if you don't, don't.
But don't base your decision on hurricane predictions.
--
Charlie Hammond -- Hewlett-Packard Company -- Ft Lauderdale FL USA
-- remove "@not" when replying)
All opinions expressed are my own and not necessarily my employer's.

On Wed, 19 May 2004 19:05:13 GMT, (Charlie
Hammond) wrote:

In article et,
(Kurt Ullman) writes:

Paying for the vacation and sustaining the LOSS of the vacation
are two entirely different things. ...

Perhaps, but in context they are the same -- either way you no longer
have the money.

But you have gained no value. This is like taking a few hundred
dollar bills and burning them.

If you really believe that there is no difference, just send the money
to me and avoid the hassle of planning and taking the vacation.
--
dillon

When I was a kid, I thought the angel's name was Hark
and the horse's name was Bob.

My advice is to SAVE the money you would pay for trip insurance.
Every few years you'll have saved enough to treat yourself to a
better vacation -- maybe even a "free" one.

To put this in some sort of perspective here's some actual premiums for a
quality policy as a percentage of insured trip cost. Note that these numbers
are rounded off for clarity.

Plan -- Travel Guard's Essentials plan:

Age 34 or under: 2.2 - 2.5% (40 - 45 trips before the unpaid premiums will add
up to a "free trip")

Age 35 - 59: 2.9 - 3.2% (30 - 34 trips before the unpaid premiums will add up
to a "free trip")

Age 60 - 69: 3.8 - 4.0% (25 - 27 trips before the unpaid premiums will add up
to a "free trip")

Age 70 - 74: 5.1 - 5.7% (17 - 19 trips before the unpaid premiums will add up
to a "free trip")

Age 75 - 79: 6.1 - 6.6% (15 - 17 trips before the unpaid premiums will add up
to a "free trip")

Age 80 - 84: 7.3 - 8.4% (11 - 13 trips before the unpaid premiums will add up
to a "free trip")

Age 85+: 9.5 - 10.4% (9 - 10 trips before the unpaid premiums will add up to
a "free trip")

As the plan name implies this policy is not packed with many of the extras than
many travelers don't want or need but it does cover the basics. Most other
plans will have a higher cost ** but this shows that for many travelers the
premium for a quality plan can be a very small amount of the actual trip cost
insured. In my opinion it would take more than a "few" years for most travelers
to earn that "free trip" by saving the premiums. There's MANY reasons that an
informed traveler may have for not purchasing a policy but for most this isn't
going to be one of them.

** Travel Guard's most popular plan (Protect Assist) runs about 40% more. For
example, for those in the 60 - 69 age bracket the percentages become 6.2 -
6.5%. That works out to 15 - 16 trips before your saved premiums add up to a
"free" trip.

I have to agree with Charlie. I have taken out trip insurance. But
once when it looked like I wasn't going to get to my flight home in
time because the travel agent screwed up the reservations from the
last stop to the airport I asked whether that would be covered, and
the answer was no it wouldn't.

So my view of insurance is that they won't insure you if they think
they will lose their money.

You're right, no insurance will cover you for travel agent incompetence or
negligence. Can you imagine covering this scenario:

My TA has me on a flight arriving into MIA at 4PM to catch a ship sailing at
5PM. No worries, I'll just buy a policy that will cover my losses in case I
don't make it. For $50 I'll transfer all of the risk that my stupid TA has
created onto the insurer.

Most plans, when dealing with connecting times, use the "legal" times
established by the airlines. If you or the TA want to cut it shorter than that
you certainly can but you're on your own nickel if you don't make it. With
arrival times into a cruise embarkation port the general rule of thumb is that
you need to be scheduled to land two hours prior to the sailing time. If you
comply with these guidelines and don't make the ship because of a covered delay
the claim will be paid.

This is from CSA's Description of Coverage:

Trip cancellation and trip interruption -- other covered items:

" 1) Common Carrier delays resulting from inclement weather, or mechanical
breakdown of the aircraft, ship or boat or motor coach on which you are
scheduled to travel, or organized labor strikes that affect public
transportation;

2) Arrangements canceled by an airline, cruise line, motor coach company, or
tour operator, resulting from inclement weather, mechanical breakdown of the
aircraft, ship or boat or motor coach on which the Insured is scheduled to
travel, or organized labor strikes that affect public transportation.

Items 1 and 2 above, are subject to the following conditions:

a) The scheduled carrier connecting times must meet airline required legal
minimum connect times; and

b) The scheduled time between arrival at the Scheduled Trip Departure City and
the scheduled trip departure must be 2 hours or longer."

"Sam" wrote:


Once again I ask has anyone
ever heard of a MILD hurricane season approaching? Now they are trying to
scare everyone with the GLOBAL WARMING effect being the cause. Just relax
and get on with your life.

Yes - a couple of years ago the years that followed El Nino (IIRC - or
maybe it was El Nina or something) were predicted to be mild and they
were.


grandma Rosalie

On Wed, 19 May 2004 21:53:18 GMT, Rosalie B.
wrote:

"Sam" wrote:


Once again I ask has anyone
ever heard of a MILD hurricane season approaching? Now they are trying to
scare everyone with the GLOBAL WARMING effect being the cause. Just relax
and get on with your life.

Yes - a couple of years ago the years that followed El Nino (IIRC - or
maybe it was El Nina or something) were predicted to be mild and they
were.


grandma Rosalie

There was an article in Ocean Navigator about 2 years ago about the
various atmospheric oscillations. One of the comments was on how
these affect the various hurricane/typhoon/cyclone seasons. I'll look
it up and post appropriate sections.
--
dillon

When I was a kid, I thought the angel's name was Hark
and the horse's name was Bob.

"Sam" wrote:

Once again I ask has anyone
ever heard of a MILD hurricane season approaching? Now they are trying to
scare everyone with the GLOBAL WARMING effect being the cause. Just relax
and get on with your life.

Hurricanes go in cycles - it was pretty dull, with a few glaring years of
excitement (David, Hugo, etc.), from the mid-60's until the mid- 90's. If
you look at hurricane archives, you will see that there have been decades of
very active years and then relative calm. The late 20's and early 30's, the
late 40's and the early 60's were quite active; the 70's were pretty dull,
in terms of tropical activity in the Atlantic and Caribbean. We are now in
an 'active' cycle so it will continue to be busy for a few years, even a
decade or more.

Also, do not forget that the population changes have to be considered - more
people near the coast, and larger percentages who have no major storm
experience. At the time of Andrew, they estimated that over 50% of those in
S. Florida had never been through a category 3 or higher storm; now, it's 12
years later and they again estimate that it's back up in the 50% range of
those who don't remember Andrew. It used to be the automatic question at any
public place, "How did you do?" which was universally understood....now,
you have to ask, 'Were you here during Andrew?' The number of people I meet
who were not here, and who take our horror stories with a grain of salt, as
if we were making this stuff up, is scary.

There has to be a happy medium between keeping people aware of the potential
dangers and boring them to inaction with the overhype. I love TV coverage of
storms because it's fun to watch the reporters fall over in the wind as they
try to show us that a 120 mph wind is strong; but it does get overdone.

Chris

In article , karens - AT-
cupcaked-DOT-com wrote:
(Kurt Ullman) wrote:

--
"No"
Amy Carter when asked if she had a message for
the children of America.

I don't know where you got this quote, but it's a real hoot :-)

I don't remember for sure any more. I DO recall that the source
seemed credible at the time. It also seemed to be within character for Amy and
the rest of the family.

--
"No"
Amy Carter when asked if she had a message for
the children of America.

Never really sure what the insurance co's will pay until you really need
them,they have a vast amt.of small print

On Wed, 19 May 2004 22:16:06 GMT, Dillon Pyron
wrote:

On Wed, 19 May 2004 21:53:18 GMT, Rosalie B.
wrote:

"Sam" wrote:


Once again I ask has anyone
ever heard of a MILD hurricane season approaching? Now they are trying to
scare everyone with the GLOBAL WARMING effect being the cause. Just relax
and get on with your life.

Yes - a couple of years ago the years that followed El Nino (IIRC - or
maybe it was El Nina or something) were predicted to be mild and they
were.


grandma Rosalie

There was an article in Ocean Navigator about 2 years ago about the
various atmospheric oscillations. One of the comments was on how
these affect the various hurricane/typhoon/cyclone seasons. I'll look
it up and post appropriate sections.

From the March/April 2003 issue of Ocean Navigator:

"During an El Nino, the trade winds decrease in force over the
tropical Pacific Ocean, and hurricanes usually increase in frequency
and ferocity over the eastern Pacific and reduce in frequency and
ferocity over the tropical Atlantic."

"During La Nina the reverse occurs. Hurrican frequency and ferocity
increase over the tropical Atlantic, along with a decrease in
trade-wind velocity."

"The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) also appears to affect hurricane
activity over the tropical Atlantic. When the NAO is in its negative
phase, sea surface pressures are lower than normal over the central
subtropical area - this high-pressure area is often called the Bermuda
High. Sea-surface temperatures are higher than normal, encouraging
convection and hurricane formation in the easterly waves that
originate in summer over the deserts of west Africa, and move westward
with the trade winds."

We are currently in a La Nina phase of the ENSO and are in a negative
phase of the NAO. ENSO has a cycle time of 2 to 7 years, while the
NAO cycles about every 40 years.

So, it appears the the ENSO and NAO currently favor a strong hurricane
season in the Atlantic. The reader is to supply his/her own grain of
salt.
--
dillon

When I was a kid, I thought the angel's name was Hark
and the horse's name was Bob.