New 30-40 seats regional?

Since 37-seat Embraer ERJ-135 and 34-seat Fairchild Dornier 328JET
entered service in 1999, there has been no new development in this
segment.

Mitsubishi MRJ was orginally planned as a 30-50 seater in 2003 but it
grew up to 70-90 seats in 2005 and it seems no manufacturer is
seriously looking at the 30-40 seat segment at the moment.

Will there be no new development in the 30-40 seat segment in the next
10 years and existing regionals such as Jetstream 31/41, Saab 340,
EMB-120 Brasilia linger on until replaced by larger new planes?

On Thu, 11 Sep 2008 19:27:21 -0700 (PDT), Sunho
wrote:

Since 37-seat Embraer ERJ-135 and 34-seat Fairchild Dornier 328JET
entered service in 1999, there has been no new development in this
segment.

Mitsubishi MRJ was orginally planned as a 30-50 seater in 2003 but it
grew up to 70-90 seats in 2005 and it seems no manufacturer is
seriously looking at the 30-40 seat segment at the moment.

Will there be no new development in the 30-40 seat segment in the next
10 years and existing regionals such as Jetstream 31/41, Saab 340,
EMB-120 Brasilia linger on until replaced by larger new planes?

I'm not sure exactly what your question is, but check out the
various Canadair Regional Jets, which have 50 seats and up.

--
************* DAVE HATUNEN ) *************
* Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow *
* My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *

On Sep 12, 11:48*am, Hatunen wrote:
On Thu, 11 Sep 2008 19:27:21 -0700 (PDT), Sunho

wrote:
Since 37-seat Embraer ERJ-135 and 34-seat Fairchild Dornier 328JET
entered service in 1999, there has been no new development in this
segment.

Mitsubishi MRJ was orginally planned as a 30-50 seater in 2003 but it
grew up to 70-90 seats in 2005 and it seems no manufacturer is
seriously looking at the 30-40 seat segment at the moment.

Will there be no new development in the 30-40 seat segment in the next
10 years and existing regionals such as Jetstream 31/41, Saab 340,
EMB-120 Brasilia linger on until replaced by larger new planes?

I'm not sure exactly what your question is, but check out the
various Canadair Regional Jets, which have 50 seats and up.

--
* ************** DAVE HATUNEN ) *************
* ** * * * Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow * * * * *
* ** My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *

I am wondering if there will be any new 30-40 seater in the next 10
years.

Hatunen wrote:

I'm not sure exactly what your question is, but check out the
various Canadair Regional Jets, which have 50 seats and up.

The original 50 seat CRJ has long ago ceased production. The larger
CRJ700 ad 900 are still being produced, and a -1000 has recently had its
first test flight.

The 70 seat Dash-8-400 is now quite popular. For smaller aircraft, the
turboprops offer significant financial advantages and for short flights,
the speed of the -400 isn't that much slower than that of jets. (it is
faster than previous generations of Dash-8s.)

The -400, with new engines and technology is prefered to the smaller
-300 because in the end, it costs less to operate.

Airlines seek to lower the cost per passenger and this means using
larger aircraft where possible.

Bombardier is now moving to develop a 100-130 seat aircraft because this
si where it says the demand will be.

On Sep 12, 2:25*pm, John Doe wrote:
Hatunen wrote:
I'm not sure exactly what your question is, but check out the
various Canadair Regional Jets, which have 50 seats and up.

The original 50 seat CRJ has long ago ceased production. *The larger
CRJ700 ad 900 are still being produced, and a -1000 has recently had its
first test flight.

The 70 seat Dash-8-400 is now quite popular. For smaller aircraft, the
turboprops offer significant financial advantages and for short flights,
*the speed of the -400 isn't that much slower than that of jets. (it is
faster than previous generations of Dash-8s.)

The -400, with new engines and technology is prefered to the smaller
-300 because in the end, it costs less to operate.

Airlines seek to lower the cost per passenger and this means using
larger aircraft where possible.

Bombardier is now moving to develop a 100-130 seat aircraft because this
si where it says the demand will be.

Larger aircraft's cost per available seat mile (cost divided by the
multiplication of flight distance and seats) should indeed be lower
than smaller aircraft's, but it would be unwise to use a 70-seater for
a route that has less than 30 passengers, I guess. Then the question
is how many routes will have less than 30 passengers per flight in
future?

If all airlines decide to serve routes that generate more than 50
passengers per flight, I believe it could open up opportunities for
other transport means such as air taxi.

In message

Sunho wrote:

Larger aircraft's cost per available seat mile (cost divided by the
multiplication of flight distance and seats) should indeed be lower
than smaller aircraft's, but it would be unwise to use a 70-seater for
a route that has less than 30 passengers, I guess. Then the question
is how many routes will have less than 30 passengers per flight in
future?

Generally with less then 30 passengers, the airline is probably better
halving the number of flights and mostly filling 70-seater planes.

"Sunho" wrote in message
...
Since 37-seat Embraer ERJ-135 and 34-seat Fairchild Dornier 328JET
entered service in 1999, there has been no new development in this
segment.

Mitsubishi MRJ was orginally planned as a 30-50 seater in 2003 but it
grew up to 70-90 seats in 2005 and it seems no manufacturer is
seriously looking at the 30-40 seat segment at the moment.

Will there be no new development in the 30-40 seat segment in the next
10 years and existing regionals such as Jetstream 31/41, Saab 340,
EMB-120 Brasilia linger on until replaced by larger new planes?

I doubt it. With the current state of fuel prices, even 50 seat jet
airplanes are not cost effective. It is much more likely that this size of
airple will stay with updated versions of the Dash 8 (or the "Q" series),
and the ATR.

Jeff

On Sep 13, 8:16*am, "Jeff Hacker" wrote:
"Sunho" wrote in message

...

Since 37-seat Embraer ERJ-135 and 34-seat Fairchild Dornier 328JET
entered service in 1999, there has been no new development in this
segment.

Mitsubishi MRJ was orginally planned as a 30-50 seater in 2003 but it
grew up to 70-90 seats in 2005 and it seems no manufacturer is
seriously looking at the 30-40 seat segment at the moment.

Will there be no new development in the 30-40 seat segment in the next
10 years and existing regionals such as Jetstream 31/41, Saab 340,
EMB-120 Brasilia linger on until replaced by larger new planes?

I doubt it. *With the current state of fuel prices, even 50 seat jet
airplanes are not cost effective. *It is much more likely that this size of
airple will stay with updated versions of the Dash 8 (or the "Q" series),
and the ATR.

Jeff

OK, what would be the threshold size of a cost effective new airliner
with $100 per barrel fuel prices? 70 seats? 90 seats?

"Sunho" wrote in message
...
On Sep 13, 8:16 am, "Jeff Hacker" wrote:
"Sunho" wrote in message

...

Since 37-seat Embraer ERJ-135 and 34-seat Fairchild Dornier 328JET
entered service in 1999, there has been no new development in this
segment.

Mitsubishi MRJ was orginally planned as a 30-50 seater in 2003 but it
grew up to 70-90 seats in 2005 and it seems no manufacturer is
seriously looking at the 30-40 seat segment at the moment.

Will there be no new development in the 30-40 seat segment in the next
10 years and existing regionals such as Jetstream 31/41, Saab 340,
EMB-120 Brasilia linger on until replaced by larger new planes?

I doubt it. With the current state of fuel prices, even 50 seat jet
airplanes are not cost effective. It is much more likely that this size of
airple will stay with updated versions of the Dash 8 (or the "Q" series),
and the ATR.

Jeff

OK, what would be the threshold size of a cost effective new airliner
with $100 per barrel fuel prices? 70 seats? 90 seats?

Not sure. You might want to post to misc.transport.air-industry as that NG
tends to get the more technical questions.

Jeff Hacker wrote:

OK, what would be the threshold size of a cost effective new airliner
with $100 per barrel fuel prices? 70 seats? 90 seats?

There is another issue to consider. During the .com bubble (when
airlines also had their bubble), Bombardier spawned CRJ200s like
mosquitos in a swamp. Production stopped for 2 reasons: after 9-11,
airlines stopped growing their fleets before bombardier stopped making
the puppy, and secondly, a few bankrupcies left enough CRJ200s in the
used market to remove the need for new ones.

The CRJ200 is a relatively young aircraft and it will be a while before
airlines start to need a replacement for their CRJ200s.

Meanwhile, to survive, Bombardier upscaled the CRJ to the -700 -900 and
now-1000 models to try to get new markets (where Embraer has done better).

The Dash-8 which had been on the verge of being shutdown got a sudden
and unexpected boost due to rise in price of oil and all of a sudden,
the -400 has had a renaissance. This is in part because of the acticve
noise reduction system and new props that makes the plane far more
comnfortable and feel less like a propellor airplane (aka: more
acceptable to general public), as well as the significant economic
advantage over jet powered planes in that size. Also, mpw that there
are jetways capable of handling a Q400, it also makes the aircraft more
palatable to the general public.

While the renaissance of the Dash-8 is remarkable, it still isn't a
widespread phenomena and the numbers are still relatively small.

Note that there are developments in smaller aircraft. For insance, the
venerable Twin Otter (Dash-6) was relaunched by a Victoria Canada firm
(Viking air) who got the designs/rights from Bombardier and new new ones
in about 2 years. This is a 19 passenger aircraft. It is used a lot in
the caribean for inter island hops for instance (it can be fitted with
floats, skis etc). However, this aircraft won't have huge performance
gains over the original twin otter.

And I guess this is one big reason you'd not seeing much activity in
smaller aircraft: lack of new engines for aircarft that removes
incentive to design a new aircraft since it would have about equal
performance as the previous one.


Also, below a certain size, you need to factor in the cost of having 2
pilots up front while smaller aircraft only need 1. Perhaps the 30-40
pax aircraft ends up costing more because it needs to be operated like a
bike aircraft, but doesn'T carry enough passengers to warrant all the
extra staff and operating costs.