BKK Post: Shwedagon Closed in Rangoon

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/21Sep2007_news19.php

21 September, 2007

ANALYSIS / BURMA : PUBLIC OUTRAGE OVER COST OF LIVING

A social volcano ready to erupt
For the first time in nearly 20 years, there have been sporadic but
sustained public protests across Burma against rising food and fuel
prices. And the ruling generals are getting nervous

By LARRY JAGAN


Political events in Burma have taken a sudden and surprising turn, with
thousands of Buddhist monks demonstrating against the military regime in
the past few days. These protest marches by the monks are likely to
continue and grow, according to young monks in telephone interviews with
foreign journalists based in Bangkok.

With the revered monks now joining the public protests against the
government, Burma's political crisis is coming to a major crossroads, with
the future of the ruling military junta now increasingly uncertain.

For the first time in nearly 20 years, there have been sporadic but
sustained public protests in the streets of Rangoon and other provincial
cities against the rising food and fuel prices.

But the government's usual response _ a concerted crackdown on dissidents
_ is beginning to backfire and has especially angered many of the
country's Buddhist clergy.

They have threatened to continue their protests this week against the
violent treatment meted out to a group of them a little over a week ago.

This political cauldron is now threatening to boil over and the generals
appear to be at a loss over what they should do. Their greatest fear now
seems about to be unleashed: mass protests led by students and monks,
similar to those which brought down the dictator General Ne Win in 1988.

At the same time international pressure on the junta to introduce
political reform has increased in response to the brutal crackdown on the
peaceful protesters. While the international community remained largely
uninformed and unaware of the tragic events as they unfolded in Rangoon 19
years ago, this time they are extremely concerned and vocal. The UN
secretary-general's special adviser, Ibrahim Gambari, plans to visit Burma
within the next few weeks before reporting back to the UN General Assembly
later next month.

The issue of Burma is also certain to be put back on the UN Security
Council agenda in the next few weeks, according to diplomats in New York.
This will force Burma to call on its friends, especially China, for
support.

This time, though, their allies may be more cautious in their defence of
the Burmese regime _ and may demand concessions in return for their votes.

Last week China summoned Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win to Beijing
where he met the senior Chinese state councillor Tang Jiaxuan at the
headquarters of the Chinese government, Zhongnanhai. He was told in no
uncertain terms that China could not tolerate an unstable Burma and feared
that the protests were getting out of hand, according to Chinese
diplomats. He strongly advised the Burmese government to treat the
protests seriously and do nothing to endanger regional stability. The
junta was also told to push forward with democratic reforms in order to
ensure peace and stability.

Then, on the weekend, another senior diplomatic delegation was dispatched
to Moscow to muster support for the Burmese military regime as it faces
further pressure at the United Nations and another attempt to secure a
Security Council resolution. Last time China and Russia used their vetoes
to prevent it being passed.

All this is casting a long shadow over Burma's political future, with the
junta increasing tentative in its plans. The key issue remains: how do the
junta leaders intend to move forward with their proposed political
reforms?

A watershed was reached earlier this month, when the National Convention
ended its constitutional discussions _ deliberations that took 14 years to
conclude. The National Convention, which had been meeting intermittently
since the beginning of 1993 to draw up a new charter, ended its last
session with a document outlining the principles the junta has decided
should be the basis of the new constitution. But clearly the guidelines
endorsed by the 1,000 hand-picked members is intended to give the illusion
of introducing democracy, while effectively leaving political power in the
hands of the country's military rulers.

The next step in Burma's return to so-called democracy will be a
referendum on the new constitution, after it has been formally drafted,
probably some time next year, according to government sources. Elections
would then be held in 2009.

At the closing session of the National Convention, acting Prime Minister
General Thein Sein proudly presented the rough draft of the constitution _
which is the recipe for what the regime regards as disciplined democracy _
as a roaring success, ignoring the fact that the country's pro-democracy
leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi who is currently under house arrest,
and the numerous ethnic groups, have all been effectively shut out of the
constitutional process.

Under the guidelines for the new charter, a quarter of the seats in
parliament will be reserved for military appointees. The president must be
a military man, while key ministries, including defence, will still be
controlled by the military. The army would set its own budget without
reference to the civilian government and the army commanders would retain
the right to declare a state of emergency and seize power at any time they
deemed necessary.

The charter also fails to meet the demands of the country's rebel ethnic
groups, who have been demanding a measure of autonomy and cultural rights.

While the junta mulls over what it will do next, its brutal suppression of
the recent protests against rising fuel and food prices reflects its
strong distaste for real democratic reform. The authorities have arrested
hundreds of people for organising and participating in small protest
marches throughout Burma in the last few weeks. Several thousand
pro-government vigilantes, armed with wooden batons and sticks have
attacked the marchers in Rangoon and throughout the country, leaving them
badly beaten.

Over the past few weeks sporadic, irregular public protests against
soaring inflation have rocked the Burmese regime, since the government's
sudden increase in fuel prices. Small peaceful protest marches are
continuing to be staged in many parts of Burma, especially in the main
commercial city, Rangoon. These demonstrations have spread to several
other parts of the country.

In the most critical incident, nearly two weeks ago 100 monks took to the
streets of Pakokku, a small town near Mandalay in central Burma. They were
beaten by vigilantes, leaving several monks badly injured. The protest was
eventually quelled when the security forces opened fire on them. The monks
have since demanded an apology from the government for their mistreatment.

In many places throughout Burma, including Pakokku, the monks have refused
to accept alms from soldiers. Although at present this is only happening
in a few places within several key centres, including Mandalay, Moulmein,
Pegu and Rangoon, observers believe it will snowball if the regime does
not make some concessions to the monks, including an apology. The
military's characteristic response has been to step up repression.

In an unprecedented move, police and security forces have been deployed
outside the monasteries in the key Buddhist cities of Mandalay and
Pakokku, as well as Rangoon to prevent the monks from getting involved in
further protests. They issued appeals through the state-controlled media
asking the monks and public not to come out into the streets.

Monasteries in many towns were shut down earlier this week and the monks,
especially novice monks, were told to return to their homes. A key
teaching university for monks in Rangoon has also been closed.

Hundreds of monks took to the streets in Rangoon, Pegu and Sittwe to
demonstrate their anger at the military's actions on Tuesday _ the
anniversary of the military coup 19 years ago which brought the State
Peace and Development Council (SPDC) to power, when it was then known as
the State Law and Order Restoration Council.

The military also seized the most important temple in Rangoon, the
Shwedagon Pagoda, to prevent the marching monks from entering the temple.
It was closed to the public and occupied by hundreds of troops _
reminiscent of the events of 1988.

Public protests are very rare in Burma as the military regime keeps a
tight grip on the population. But the numbers joining these marches have
grown since more than 100 people joined the first demonstration in
mid-August, demanding that the government immediately lower fuel and food
prices.

''The current protests are still economic for sure,'' said Khin Ohnmar, a
leading Burmese activist based in Thailand with close links to the
organisers of the protests.

''But everyone recognises that the root cause of the inflation is the
junta's economic mismanagement.''

Many activists are already drawing comparisons between the events of the
last few weeks and the mass pro-democracy demonstrations in 1988 which
forced the authoritarian leader Gen Ne Win to resign. Mass protests,
involving students, civil servants, workers and monks brought the country
to a standstill for months until the military brutally crushed the
movement and seized power in a coup on Sept 18, 1988.

So far the signs are that while people are angry, they are not yet
prepared to risk joining the protests. But there is no doubt a fury is
bubbling away under the surface.

Rising rice prices would almost certainly be the last straw. And with the
heavy rains and flooding in Burma's rice bowl, yields and supply will be
substantially reduced compared to the last few years.

''A hungry man is an angry man,'' a Rangoon taxi driver told a foreign
journalist recently.

''It's not human rights we are concerned about; we just want them [the
military government] to stop treating us like animals,'' one of the
protest organisers said.

Although public anger and the protest marchers are still only focusing on
economic issues, it will inevitably turn political, according to Ms Khin
Ohnmar.

''At the moment the movement is not talking about power at this stage. But
by concentrating on what really concerns people in their daily lives,
people will be encouraged to participate and that will eventually generate
a momentum for real change. That's what happened in 1988,'' she said.

The dramatic events of August 1988 took months to evolve. It started, in
fact, in late 1987 with demonetisation and the withdrawal of some currency
notes, which wiped out people's savings overnight. The initial peaceful
protest marches were suspended after the regime violently cracked down on
them.

But some three months later the students initiated a fresh series of
protests which grew into a mass movement by August. The involvement of the
country's Buddhist monks proved critical at that time.

For the first time since the momentous events of 1988 brought down the
country's dictator and his one-party rule, the Burmese military government
is facing concerted public protests against its continued control of
power. If the regime mishandles these small, sporadic protests they could
easily escalate into demonstrations demanding the end of military rule.

''Burma is a social volcano ready to erupt,'' according to a leading
Burmese businessman. ''These price increases may just be the spark that
ignites it.''



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BURMA ACTION GROUP
SAO Box 119, HUB
University of Washington http://students.washington.edu/burma/
Seattle, WA 98195