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"Air marshals cover only a few flights"



 
 
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  #41  
Old August 27th, 2004, 04:24 AM
AC
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
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Although your reasoning is sound, you can't talk statistics to someone who
is scared...

I'd suggest a counsellor. (not for JohnT)


"R J Carpenter" wrote in message
...

"JohnT" wrote in message
...

Why? Travelling by air, even taking into account the fact that

occasionally
really nasty things happen, is 99.99 per cent safe.


Very few people would make air trips if flying were that unsafe. There
would be a crash about once a day in the USA.

Guesstimate that each of the top 25 airports in the USA have an average of
300 departures per day (some have much more). That makes vaguely 7500
departures per day, just counting the major airports. JohnT threw out the
number of one problem per ten thousand flights. That would mean roughly

one
airliner crash per day in the USA. There have been about 1000 days since
"9/11". IIRC, it has been a number of years since a mainline US airliner
crash.

Even on the disastrous day of 9/11, if you had a scheduled departure from
any US airport chosen at random between 7 and 10 am, the chance of being

on
one of the crashed airliners was probably not more than one in a

thousand -
and that is the ONLY "bad" day on record.

The historical incidence of crashes is around one in a million takeoffs

for
reputable airlines, not one in ten thousand. Is your likelihood of dying
tomorrow from other causes as low as one in a million? People only live
about 25,000 - 30,000 days.







  #42  
Old August 27th, 2004, 04:24 AM
AC
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Although your reasoning is sound, you can't talk statistics to someone who
is scared...

I'd suggest a counsellor. (not for JohnT)


"R J Carpenter" wrote in message
...

"JohnT" wrote in message
...

Why? Travelling by air, even taking into account the fact that

occasionally
really nasty things happen, is 99.99 per cent safe.


Very few people would make air trips if flying were that unsafe. There
would be a crash about once a day in the USA.

Guesstimate that each of the top 25 airports in the USA have an average of
300 departures per day (some have much more). That makes vaguely 7500
departures per day, just counting the major airports. JohnT threw out the
number of one problem per ten thousand flights. That would mean roughly

one
airliner crash per day in the USA. There have been about 1000 days since
"9/11". IIRC, it has been a number of years since a mainline US airliner
crash.

Even on the disastrous day of 9/11, if you had a scheduled departure from
any US airport chosen at random between 7 and 10 am, the chance of being

on
one of the crashed airliners was probably not more than one in a

thousand -
and that is the ONLY "bad" day on record.

The historical incidence of crashes is around one in a million takeoffs

for
reputable airlines, not one in ten thousand. Is your likelihood of dying
tomorrow from other causes as low as one in a million? People only live
about 25,000 - 30,000 days.







  #43  
Old August 27th, 2004, 04:28 AM
AC
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

The fact that nothing's happened since the "colours changed" means little.

If you change your oil every 5000 in your car, and it doesn't break down, do
you try to extend that to 20 000? I don't think so... Insurance is
insurance, whether you feel like it's giving you "value", or not.


"31A" wrote in message
news:lGSUc.27992$X12.11895@edtnps84...

Zoeliz wrote in message ...
ou only need to have 7-8 bad guys on a plane.


So which are the flights not to go on? I'm planning a trip between the UK

and
the US in a few weeks and I'm getting frightened of taking the trip.



Despite regular alerts and warnings, and elevated 'threat colors' since
9/11, nothing has ever happened.
Which is not to say that it couldn't, but that the odds of your being
involved are infinitesimally small.

The administration will of course claim that nothing has happened because

of
the alerts, warnings etc. etc., a stance which (conveniently) cannot be
proven or disproven. If we knew when or indeed if Al Q'aida will strike
again, we could dispense with 99% of the current security nonsense. But
since we don't, the Jacobsen School of Paranoia rules.

Relax.




  #44  
Old August 27th, 2004, 04:28 AM
AC
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

The fact that nothing's happened since the "colours changed" means little.

If you change your oil every 5000 in your car, and it doesn't break down, do
you try to extend that to 20 000? I don't think so... Insurance is
insurance, whether you feel like it's giving you "value", or not.


"31A" wrote in message
news:lGSUc.27992$X12.11895@edtnps84...

Zoeliz wrote in message ...
ou only need to have 7-8 bad guys on a plane.


So which are the flights not to go on? I'm planning a trip between the UK

and
the US in a few weeks and I'm getting frightened of taking the trip.



Despite regular alerts and warnings, and elevated 'threat colors' since
9/11, nothing has ever happened.
Which is not to say that it couldn't, but that the odds of your being
involved are infinitesimally small.

The administration will of course claim that nothing has happened because

of
the alerts, warnings etc. etc., a stance which (conveniently) cannot be
proven or disproven. If we knew when or indeed if Al Q'aida will strike
again, we could dispense with 99% of the current security nonsense. But
since we don't, the Jacobsen School of Paranoia rules.

Relax.




  #45  
Old August 28th, 2004, 01:53 AM
Zoeliz
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

I'd suggest a counsellor.

Frankly, I can't see what good a counsellor would do for being afraid of
flying. There are several legitimate reasons for those fears so why go to a
counsellor for them. However, I did find the statistics comforting and
reasonable.


Zoe
 




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