'Economic' flight cancellations may make cheap travel a thing of the past

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'Economic' flight cancellations may make cheap travel a thing of the
past

A few weeks ago, Delta cancelled some flights strictly because of
anticipated light loads. The reason was to cut fuel consumption. Those
cancellations have now been reversed, says Delta, since fuel supplies
are now stable. But fuel prices could easily spike again, prompting a
new round of cancellations. And that's unfortunate, because
last-minute cancellations are the most difficult ones to cope with if
you can't accept the alternative your airline gives you.

While travelers have long speculated that airlines routinely made such
"economic cancellations," Delta is the first to admit so in public.
Delta's plan was to cancel "a few dozen flights a day," when projected
loads are unusually light. Delta says it cancelled flights only when
it projected light loads on both a flight and the return flight, or
whatever flight the airplane was next scheduled to fly. Delta also
says travelers would be "easily accommodated with another flight" and
that it provided at least a two-day advance notice. And, says Delta,
travelers on cancelled flights could ask for a credit or refund,
regardless of the type of ticket they held.

Economic cancellations are the third and least desirable approach to
the downsizing that major "legacy" lines are taking. The first level
is across-the-board systemwide downsizing, at least for trips within
the U.S. All the big lines are doing that to a degree, either by
halting flights completely or shifting them from mainline planes to
smaller regional jets.

The second level is a series of temporary schedule reductions,
announced well in advance. This strategy is exemplified by American's
recent announcement that it is canceling its low-performing nonstop
flights from Chicago to Nagoya, Japan, and canceling a series of
flights between Chicago and Dallas on busy routes where it has enough
other flights to accommodate its current levels of traffic.

Both the first and second levels have the advantage that you know
about them well in advance. So if you don't like the alternative
schedule your airline proposes for you, you have enough time at least
to try to arrange a "plan B" alternative on some other airline.

But you can't do that with short-term cancellations. By the time you
learn of the cancellation, you may have too little time to find a seat
on some other line, and even if you do, you'd likely face a much
higher fare for a last-minute ticket. No matter how unsatisfactory,
you may be stuck with whatever substitute itinerary your airline
offers. If nothing else, a late re-booking almost guarantees you'll be
stashed in a middle seat.

Economic cancellations have long been a favorite conspiracy theory of
frequent travelers. I used to hear it all the time, especially about
shuttle flights between Los Angeles and San Francisco. United once
flew an average of three flights per hour, each way, often providing
enough excess capacity to allow one or two off-peak round-trips to be
cut. And I've been on plenty of flights that an airline would have a
strong incentive to cancel, if it could, including one
transcontinental nonstop flight on a 747 with only four passengers.
Historically, airlines have either denied the practice or simply
refused to provide any direct answers to questions about it. So,
however unwelcome, Delta's announcement was at least an honest
admission. Would you be at all surprised to learn others have done the
same thing?

The bottom line: Overt or covert, there are probably some economic
cancellations in your future. After years of urging you so seek out
lightly loaded flights—for more low-fare seats, extra room, better
service and quicker unloading—we travel writers may soon have to back
up and instead warn you about flights that are so lightly loaded that
the airline may cancel them, demonstrating again that today's airline
travel is increasingly a no-win situation.

http://www.smartertravel.com/advice/...0&u=SL4F6B4DC5


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-- Bonzi Wells, Sacramento Kings
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