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Latest on Isabel
Supercane Isabel continues toward U. S.
9/14/2003 12:30 P.M. Buzz Bernard, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel In the western Pacific, Hurricane Isabel would be called a supertyphoon. Thus, this exceptionally powerful Atlantic hurricane--with an exceptionally large eye--certainly earns the designation "supercane." Isabel, an extremely dangerous category 5 storm, continues to churn relentlessly in the direction of the continental U. S. It's beginning to look more and more like Isabel will strike the Eastern Seaboard, probably someplace north of South Carolina, before the week is out. Although Isabel may no longer be a category 5 at landfall, it's likely to still be a major hurricane with winds in excess of 100 mph. Not only that, but a building high pressure ridge north of Isabel may well tighten the pressure gradient on the northern and eastern sides of the storm, thus producing a large area of potentially damaging winds. The first signs of Isabel's approach will be building surf along the East Coast, mainly from the Carolinas northward. By Wednesday, wave heights may top 20 feet along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and as far north as the southern shores of Long Island. Today, with Isabel still several days away from the U. S., large ocean swells and dangerous surf are battering portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Although large swells will spread through the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas over the next few days, Isabel is expected to gradually turn to a more northwesterly track and miss those islands to the east. In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Linda has developed and is forecast to move northwestward and gradually strengthen over the next few days. The storm is forecast to remain well southwest of Baja California, however. |
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Latest on Isabel
Most of the computer models suggest that Isabel will probably strike the
east coast around the Chesapeake Bay area. However, these "predictions" change almost hourly. You might find it interesting to follow the discusssions on the following board/newsgroup: ne.weather No matter where Isable moves, it will have a definite impact on cruises the latter part of this week Neil "Brenda" wrote in message om... Supercane Isabel continues toward U. S. 9/14/2003 12:30 P.M. Buzz Bernard, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel In the western Pacific, Hurricane Isabel would be called a supertyphoon. Thus, this exceptionally powerful Atlantic hurricane--with an exceptionally large eye--certainly earns the designation "supercane." Isabel, an extremely dangerous category 5 storm, continues to churn relentlessly in the direction of the continental U. S. It's beginning to look more and more like Isabel will strike the Eastern Seaboard, probably someplace north of South Carolina, before the week is out. Although Isabel may no longer be a category 5 at landfall, it's likely to still be a major hurricane with winds in excess of 100 mph. Not only that, but a building high pressure ridge north of Isabel may well tighten the pressure gradient on the northern and eastern sides of the storm, thus producing a large area of potentially damaging winds. The first signs of Isabel's approach will be building surf along the East Coast, mainly from the Carolinas northward. By Wednesday, wave heights may top 20 feet along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and as far north as the southern shores of Long Island. Today, with Isabel still several days away from the U. S., large ocean swells and dangerous surf are battering portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Although large swells will spread through the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas over the next few days, Isabel is expected to gradually turn to a more northwesterly track and miss those islands to the east. In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Linda has developed and is forecast to move northwestward and gradually strengthen over the next few days. The storm is forecast to remain well southwest of Baja California, however. |
#3
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Latest on Isabel
Here is the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service. It looks
like they are expeting landfall near the Virginia/North Carolina state line, or possably along the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday afternoon. BEGIN QUOTE 000 WTNT43 KNHC 142039 TCDAT3 HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003 THE AFTERNOON PLETHORA OF RECON WIND AND PRESSURE DATA INDICATE THAT ISABEL REMAINS BARELY BELOW CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 150 KT...OR 135 KT SURFACE EQUIVALENT...IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE EYEWALL...WHILE A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE REPORT INDICATED 171 KT AVERAGE WINDS IN THE LOWER 150 METERS...OR 139 SURFACE WIND EQUIVALENT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...ISABEL IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 135 KT. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. RECON FIX POSITIONS HAVE BEEN COMING IN RIGHT ON TRACK AND THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ABOUT THE PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST TRACKS. THE LATEST GFDL RUN HAS CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE 96-120H TRACK IS AT LEAST 90 NMI WEST OF THE 00Z TRACK. ONE DISTURBING BIT OF INFORMATION IS THAT THE 12Z UKMET... GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS DID NOT ANALYZE THE 500 MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS TO THE 12Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR OBSERVATION OF 10 KT NORTHEAST WIND AND 5940 METER HEIGHT. THIS OBSERVATION SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA AND ISABEL EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FARTHER THAN THOSE FOUR MODELS ARE INDICATING. MORE RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM... ISABEL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER WEST THAN THESE MODELS ARE FORECASTING BEFORE THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL INITIALIZED THE 500 MB PROPERLY TO THE BERMUDA OBSERVATION...AND THE 12Z NOGAPS TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL OF ISABEL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD STILL DEEPEN AND DIG MORE SOUTHWARD THAN THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND RESULT IN LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE U.S. EAST COAST. BUT AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...A LARGE AND VERY STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF ISABEL AND PREVENT THE HURRICANE FROM RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD. ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND UNDER 15-25 KT 200 MB FLOW. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL HAS BEEN INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM OFFSHORE NORTH CAROLINA JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 24.1N 67.4W 135 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 24.7N 68.9W 135 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 25.7N 70.2W 135 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 26.7N 71.3W 130 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 28.0N 72.2W 125 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 31.2N 74.0W 120 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 36.5N 76.0W 105 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 43.5N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND END QUOTE Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../142039.shtml? Tom Smith "Brenda" wrote in message om... Supercane Isabel continues toward U. S. 9/14/2003 12:30 P.M. Buzz Bernard, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel In the western Pacific, Hurricane Isabel would be called a supertyphoon. Thus, this exceptionally powerful Atlantic hurricane--with an exceptionally large eye--certainly earns the designation "supercane." Isabel, an extremely dangerous category 5 storm, continues to churn relentlessly in the direction of the continental U. S. It's beginning to look more and more like Isabel will strike the Eastern Seaboard, probably someplace north of South Carolina, before the week is out. Although Isabel may no longer be a category 5 at landfall, it's likely to still be a major hurricane with winds in excess of 100 mph. Not only that, but a building high pressure ridge north of Isabel may well tighten the pressure gradient on the northern and eastern sides of the storm, thus producing a large area of potentially damaging winds. The first signs of Isabel's approach will be building surf along the East Coast, mainly from the Carolinas northward. By Wednesday, wave heights may top 20 feet along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and as far north as the southern shores of Long Island. Today, with Isabel still several days away from the U. S., large ocean swells and dangerous surf are battering portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Although large swells will spread through the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas over the next few days, Isabel is expected to gradually turn to a more northwesterly track and miss those islands to the east. In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Linda has developed and is forecast to move northwestward and gradually strengthen over the next few days. The storm is forecast to remain well southwest of Baja California, however. |
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Latest on Isabel
This morning at 04:40AM EDT she is 550 miles east of Nassau.......
I predicted N Carolina earlier this week after sitting with my ruler & pencil with a map following W NW W but last night she is going W no N. Also saw that the plywood sheets are going for $20 a piece. RIPOFF!!!! "Thomas Smith" -NO-SPAM wrote in message ... Here is the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service. It looks like they are expeting landfall near the Virginia/North Carolina state line, or possably along the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday afternoon. BEGIN QUOTE 000 WTNT43 KNHC 142039 TCDAT3 HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003 THE AFTERNOON PLETHORA OF RECON WIND AND PRESSURE DATA INDICATE THAT ISABEL REMAINS BARELY BELOW CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 150 KT...OR 135 KT SURFACE EQUIVALENT...IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE EYEWALL...WHILE A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE REPORT INDICATED 171 KT AVERAGE WINDS IN THE LOWER 150 METERS...OR 139 SURFACE WIND EQUIVALENT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...ISABEL IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 135 KT. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. RECON FIX POSITIONS HAVE BEEN COMING IN RIGHT ON TRACK AND THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ABOUT THE PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST TRACKS. THE LATEST GFDL RUN HAS CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE 96-120H TRACK IS AT LEAST 90 NMI WEST OF THE 00Z TRACK. ONE DISTURBING BIT OF INFORMATION IS THAT THE 12Z UKMET... GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS DID NOT ANALYZE THE 500 MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS TO THE 12Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR OBSERVATION OF 10 KT NORTHEAST WIND AND 5940 METER HEIGHT. THIS OBSERVATION SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA AND ISABEL EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FARTHER THAN THOSE FOUR MODELS ARE INDICATING. MORE RIDGING WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM... ISABEL SHOULD MOVE FARTHER WEST THAN THESE MODELS ARE FORECASTING BEFORE THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL INITIALIZED THE 500 MB PROPERLY TO THE BERMUDA OBSERVATION...AND THE 12Z NOGAPS TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL OF ISABEL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD STILL DEEPEN AND DIG MORE SOUTHWARD THAN THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND RESULT IN LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE U.S. EAST COAST. BUT AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...A LARGE AND VERY STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF ISABEL AND PREVENT THE HURRICANE FROM RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD. ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND UNDER 15-25 KT 200 MB FLOW. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL HAS BEEN INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM OFFSHORE NORTH CAROLINA JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 24.1N 67.4W 135 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 24.7N 68.9W 135 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 25.7N 70.2W 135 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 26.7N 71.3W 130 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 28.0N 72.2W 125 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 31.2N 74.0W 120 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 36.5N 76.0W 105 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 43.5N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND END QUOTE Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../142039.shtml? Tom Smith "Brenda" wrote in message om... Supercane Isabel continues toward U. S. 9/14/2003 12:30 P.M. Buzz Bernard, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel In the western Pacific, Hurricane Isabel would be called a supertyphoon. Thus, this exceptionally powerful Atlantic hurricane--with an exceptionally large eye--certainly earns the designation "supercane." Isabel, an extremely dangerous category 5 storm, continues to churn relentlessly in the direction of the continental U. S. It's beginning to look more and more like Isabel will strike the Eastern Seaboard, probably someplace north of South Carolina, before the week is out. Although Isabel may no longer be a category 5 at landfall, it's likely to still be a major hurricane with winds in excess of 100 mph. Not only that, but a building high pressure ridge north of Isabel may well tighten the pressure gradient on the northern and eastern sides of the storm, thus producing a large area of potentially damaging winds. The first signs of Isabel's approach will be building surf along the East Coast, mainly from the Carolinas northward. By Wednesday, wave heights may top 20 feet along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and as far north as the southern shores of Long Island. Today, with Isabel still several days away from the U. S., large ocean swells and dangerous surf are battering portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Although large swells will spread through the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas over the next few days, Isabel is expected to gradually turn to a more northwesterly track and miss those islands to the east. In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Linda has developed and is forecast to move northwestward and gradually strengthen over the next few days. The storm is forecast to remain well southwest of Baja California, however. |
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Latest on Isabel
In article , Brenda
wrote: I predicted N Carolina earlier this week after sitting with my ruler & pencil with a map following W NW W but last night she is going W no N. You predicted South Carolina, not North Carolina. -- Charles |
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Latest on Isabel
"Brenda" wrote in message om... This morning at 04:40AM EDT she is 550 miles east of Nassau....... I predicted N Carolina earlier this week after sitting with my ruler & pencil with a map following W NW W but last night she is going W no N. Also saw that the plywood sheets are going for $20 a piece. RIPOFF!!!! Wait until AFTER the storm - then again, the guy in Miami trying to sell a bag of diapers to a frustrated new daddy for $25 got the tar beat out of him; people would drive down here with truckloads full of ice (to get past the National Guard they had to have a local address) and try to sell them for $10. Then again, there was the greatest outpouring of relief from across the nation and across the world. Our power was turned on by a crew from Michigan! The disaster squads from Charleston and Dade County (Hugo & Andrew) are on standby and will be at the site of the worst-hit areas within hours of the storm passing. Chris |
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Latest on Isabel
I remember being on the Turnpike a few days after Andrew hit. There were
convoys of lorries on their way to the disaster area carrying supplies. They were being routed around the tolls They were greeted along the Turnpike with horns beeping. How did we know they were on their way to help out. ? There were signs on the lorries. SUNNY...........saw terrible destruction after Andrew hit S'nd I |
#8
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Latest on Isabel
"villa deauville" wrote in message ... I remember being on the Turnpike a few days after Andrew hit. There were convoys of lorries on their way to the disaster area carrying supplies. They were being routed around the tolls They were greeted along the Turnpike with horns beeping. How did we know they were on their way to help out. ? There were signs on the lorries. SUNNY...........saw terrible destruction after Andrew hit S'nd I The kids and I left to MIL's house in Cocoa (it sure helped the marriage that we were apart and left him to do rebuilding without distraction). We all three sat on the I-95 overpass and cried, waving at the hundreds of vehicles in the military relief convoys. Part of our problem was the isolation, at the tip of the peninsula. The mid-Atlantic coast will have a much larger, and closer, support system. Chris |
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Latest on Isabel
Isabel churns west-northwestward, weakens a bit
9/15/2003 2:34 P.M. Buzz Bernard, Sr. Meteorologist, The Weather Channel Isabel has weakened a bit today, but remains an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane and continues to track inexorably toward the U. S. The hurricane, currently centered about 500 miles east of Nassau, Bahamas, is looking a lot more raggedy this afternoon than it did yesterday, having been "choked" a bit. That is, its outflow--or exhaust mechanism--aloft has been inhibited. Think of it as similar to sticking a potato in the exhaust pipe of a car: the engine doesn't run so well. It remains likely, however, that Isabel will make a comeback--the "potato" plucked from its exhaust--and thunder ashore sometime Thursday along the Mid-Atlantic coast. No location from North Carolina to Long Island is off the hook. The exact spot of Isabel's landfall may be difficult to predict due to the extreme angle at which the storm could be approaching the coast, especially if it stays out to sea north of Cape Hatteras. A very tiny change in the hurricane's direction of movement could shift its landfall by a hundred miles or more. Although Isabel is not a particularly large hurricane, its wind field will expand dramatically as it nears the U. S. and encounters a building high pressure area over the Northeast. Thus, even though the strongest winds should occur someplace along the Mid-Atlantic coast (wherever Isabel comes ashore), gales eventually could pound beaches as far north as Maine. In the meantime, the first harbingers of Isabel's fury will be building surf and rip currents along the Eastern Seaboard. No high surf warnings have yet been issued, but it shouldn't be long before some are. Today, large swells and dangerous surf are battering portions of the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Linda, about 325 miles SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, is churning toward the NW. Linda is expected to become a minimal hurricane later today and turn gradually to a more WNW track over the next 24 hours. |
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