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#1
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why no last minute deals?
Over the years I have frequently seen statements that the reason
airlines do not offer last minute deals for empty seats is that they prefer to do the reverse. The claimis the carriers get maximum revenue from businessmen and other who are forced to pay exceptional premiuims for last minute flights. Yet, anyone who has flown often enough knows that the facts belie this. In more than 50 years of buying air tickets I have rarely encountered a genuinely full, every seat occupied flight. Even in this age of alleged revenue maximumization software, I have been on flights that have many empty seats. I'm speaking of an incidence rate well below 1%. To the contraray, a seat vacancy rate of at least 10% seems to be the norm even on the most heavily booked routes. Yet, in all that time, I have never heard of a single airline ever experimenting with offering a genuine last minute walkup fare or, better yet, a last minute auction to waiting passengers. An experiment could easily be arranged, in varying forms to learn what works best, at a few controlled locations, between selected cities or on selected flights. For example, an auction would allow that "gotta go right now" flyer to bid whatever price that means while the flyer who says, "I'll take a middle aseat in the last row by the lavatory if it's cheap enough" will fill those enormally empty seats. The airline could even control factorsd such as more desireable reserved seats would be auctioned separately and with a reserve bid while leaving that less desireable seat to be sold to the highest on the sport bidder. The experiment could test "open call" over "silent bids." I'm sure eBay could provdie onsite terminals that would handle this at well placed kiosks. I have a very strong belief that this would satisfy everyone. But not one airline, anywhere in the world seems to have tried it even once. Why not? CaribeJoe - Moderator Non-commercial My Caribbean.Info Forums Free Caribbean Destination Directories Free advice from Travel Writers Post your own trip reports and photos Hotel and Air Deals and Rough Guide Reports http://www.mycaribbean.info |
#2
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why no last minute deals?
To the contraray, a seat vacancy rate of at least 10% seems to be the
norm even on the most heavily booked routes. Yet, in all that time, I have never heard of a single airline ever experimenting with offering a genuine last minute walkup fare or, better yet, a last minute auction to waiting passengers. That is because the airlines have found that the current pricing structure works--it produces the highest yields. If they get even ONE last minute traveller who pays full coach (e.g., $1000)--well that sure is a LOT better than having to cope with 20 people hanging around airports who each want to pay $50 for a flight, and have to purchase tickets, check bags, and be an unholy nuisance. |
#3
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why no last minute deals?
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#4
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why no last minute deals?
flown recently ? Haven't seen many empty seats in the last year....and I fly
A LOT ! wrote in message s.com... Over the years I have frequently seen statements that the reason airlines do not offer last minute deals for empty seats is that they prefer to do the reverse. The claimis the carriers get maximum revenue from businessmen and other who are forced to pay exceptional premiuims for last minute flights. Yet, anyone who has flown often enough knows that the facts belie this. In more than 50 years of buying air tickets I have rarely encountered a genuinely full, every seat occupied flight. Even in this age of alleged revenue maximumization software, I have been on flights that have many empty seats. I'm speaking of an incidence rate well below 1%. To the contraray, a seat vacancy rate of at least 10% seems to be the norm even on the most heavily booked routes. Yet, in all that time, I have never heard of a single airline ever experimenting with offering a genuine last minute walkup fare or, better yet, a last minute auction to waiting passengers. An experiment could easily be arranged, in varying forms to learn what works best, at a few controlled locations, between selected cities or on selected flights. For example, an auction would allow that "gotta go right now" flyer to bid whatever price that means while the flyer who says, "I'll take a middle aseat in the last row by the lavatory if it's cheap enough" will fill those enormally empty seats. The airline could even control factorsd such as more desireable reserved seats would be auctioned separately and with a reserve bid while leaving that less desireable seat to be sold to the highest on the sport bidder. The experiment could test "open call" over "silent bids." I'm sure eBay could provdie onsite terminals that would handle this at well placed kiosks. I have a very strong belief that this would satisfy everyone. But not one airline, anywhere in the world seems to have tried it even once. Why not? CaribeJoe - Moderator Non-commercial My Caribbean.Info Forums Free Caribbean Destination Directories Free advice from Travel Writers Post your own trip reports and photos Hotel and Air Deals and Rough Guide Reports http://www.mycaribbean.info |
#5
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why no last minute deals?
Finn wrote:
flown recently ? Haven't seen many empty seats in the last year....and I fly A LOT ! I see a lot of free seats on the 7:35, soon to be 7:00 Saturday morning flight from SJC-SNA. If you need a nap, you can generally find enough empty rows in the back. If people knew they could get a cheap fare by waiting until the last minute, that is exactly what they would do. Despite what the original poster stated, last minute specials have been tried before, probably by every major US carrier. |
#6
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why no last minute deals?
mtravelkay wrote:
I see a lot of free seats on the 7:35, soon to be 7:00 Saturday morning flight from SJC-SNA. Weekly last-minute specials tend to be clustered around hubs or from hub-to-hub. I'm on the UA, AA and Continental lists. I need to fly PDX-ORD so those deals are few and far between. Up and down the west coast is regional, I can easily fly PDX-SJC or -SFO without seven days advance for $200-300. Chicago, make it 2 or 3 weeks, even a month in advance outside of 1Q. gld |
#7
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why no last minute deals?
On Sun, 28 Mar 2004 08:53:54 -0800, "Gary L. Dare"
wrote: mtravelkay wrote: I see a lot of free seats on the 7:35, soon to be 7:00 Saturday morning flight from SJC-SNA. Weekly last-minute specials tend to be clustered around hubs or from hub-to-hub. I'm on the UA, AA and Continental lists. I need to fly PDX-ORD so those deals are few and far between. Up and down the west coast is regional, I can easily fly PDX-SJC or -SFO without seven days advance for $200-300. Chicago, make it 2 or 3 weeks, even a month in advance outside of 1Q. In general, though, I would think airlines would not try to find ways to encourage people to fly at the last minute rather than booking ahead of time. They want to know with at least some certainty well before the day of a flight how many people will be on it. tmac "Money-saving suggestion: let's cut directly to the scene where Mr. Bush dresses up as an astronaut, and skip the rest of his expensive, pointless - but optimistic! - Moon-base program." -- Paul Krugman http://www.specialplaceinhell.org |
#8
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why no last minute deals?
Speaking as the original poster of the question, I do appreciate the
many responses. And I do recognize that thread drift is normal. But I am still hopeful of hearing a real explanation as to why airlines have never tried offering last minute walkup fares or a last minute auction at the terminal. It's not enough to say because the current system of charging a premium maximizes revenue from businessmen and other who must fly. Planes still fly with empty seats. To my knowledge, not one airline has ever tried a genuine last minute walk up fare for those seats or an auction system that would maximize occupancy. If no one has ever tried it, how can anyone argue that something else works better? CaribeJoe - Moderator Non-commercial My Caribbean.Info Forums Free Caribbean Destination Directories Free advice from Travel Writers Post your own trip reports and photos Hotel and Air Deals and Rough Guide Reports http://www.mycaribbean.info |
#9
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why no last minute deals?
Planes still fly with empty seats. To my knowledge, not one airline has ever tried a genuine last minute walk up fare for those seats or an auction system that would maximize occupancy. They will sell the same number of seats on a Thursday as they might on a Friday, but on the Thursday the plane might be oversold and they will have to bump travellers, while on the Friday there may be 10 empty seats. They simply cannot reliably PREDICT if there will be last minute cancellations, or last-minute purchases, or delayed flights so that connecting passengers will not make it for the flight, or cancelled flights so that there will be additional unexpected passengers needing to get on. Because the actual number of passengers that will show up for a flight is UNPREDICTABLE, the airlines use "yield management" and computer models to predict the most likely outcomes, and to set up the most profitable arrangement. Your proposal ignores all of that, because you want a last minute cheap seat. Whether or not there will be open seats is often a matter of what happens at the last minute, at the gate. And neither the airline, nor airport security, can possibly afford to have cheap-seat-hopefuls hanging around at the gate, within the security area, hoping for a last minute cheap seat. It is not doable because the actual number of travellers is (till the very last second) unpredictable, and it would be a horrendous complication and impossible waste of their time for them to try--not to mention being a NOT profitable option for them. For flights that are really looking half-empty, they can TRY to drop prices (and many U.S. airlines offer specials that you can book online starting on Wednesday for weekend trips to very narrowly defined destinations--these ARE the last-minute deals you are talking about), but no airline is daft enough to try to add standby-hangers-on or some crazy auction to the already very unpredictable reality that some flights wind up OVERsold and some undersold even though they have exactly the same number of advance reservations for those flights. They would be daft to screw up the orderly demand and purchase systems they have for their for airspace, and screw up the yield management structures they have, and screw up the boarding processes that are difficult enough as they are, by trying to squeeze a couple bucks out of cheapskates. |
#10
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why no last minute deals?
s.com...
Speaking as the original poster of the question, I do appreciate the many responses. And I do recognize that thread drift is normal. But I am still hopeful of hearing a real explanation as to why airlines have never tried offering last minute walkup fares or a last minute auction at the terminal. It's not enough to say because the current system of charging a premium maximizes revenue from businessmen and other who must fly. Planes still fly with empty seats. To my knowledge, not one airline has ever tried a genuine last minute walk up fare for those seats or an auction system that would maximize occupancy. If no one has ever tried it, how can anyone argue that something else works better? IME I have found that if a route has a lot of competition eg DUB - LON, LON - CDG, a walk up fare is generally quite cheap, probably because the airline knows you will just go to another desk.. However on a route with just one airline and no competition, the airline knows the passenger at the counter is probably desperate to get on that next flight and so is prepared to pay through the roof for a ticket. |
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