Avoid Delta and Atlanta

In article , nobody wrote:

My point exactly. Nobody who wants to save money books 12 months in
advance, because there will always be some sale later on when the same
flights will be selling cheaper.

Hillary has shown you examples where this is NOT the case.

Actually, she didn't. She mentioned something about Aer Lingus never
lowering fares (clearly bogus, as you can find plenty of past EI
sales by searching the net), but when I asked for a specific flight
where fares 12 months in advance are the cheapest fares available,
she couldn't give any such flight.

There are many periods where it is know that there will NOT be any seat sales.

What would they be? Just give me a flight number and a date, for
which the cheapest fare is the one that's available a year in advance.

In article .net,
Hilary wrote:

Give me a specific route. How about GLA-MCO? You can bet your bippy
that GLA-MCO fares for travel on June 30, 2007, will be cheaper in
the winter than when they are first released in July 2006.

It's most likely that there won't be any of the cheaper fares.

Since the fares for June 2007 aren't out yet, I can't do the
experiment right away, but I went to a random UK-based airfare site
(flights4less.co.uk) and compared GLA-MCO fares for 2 adults and 2
kids for Aug 1-14, 2006 (presumably, main vacation season) and Apr
1-14, 2007.

Which one do you think was lower?

People in the UK generally need to book 1-2 holidays in advance to
even *think* about the cheaper fares.

I buy UK-originating tickets twice a year or so, rarely more than 1-1.5
months in advance. I seem to get reasonably cheap fares on the dates
I need. I usually buy from consolidators like Trailfinders and such.
Of course, this is just one person's experience, but somehow I doubt
that every Brit on a budget plans his or her vacation a year in advance.

Many passengers told me that they preferred booking 12 months in advance
because it was generally both easier and cheaper than they could get
later, unless they risked not going at all. And even their seat sales
weren't always cheaper than the previous year's fares.

I believe that. A lot of folks seem to have misconceptions about yield
management, and mistakenly think that if they don't book as early as
possible, the cheap seats are going to disappear. And you do have a
valid point that checking airfares throughout a year to save 50 quid
is nobody's idea of fun.

I buy UK-originating tickets twice a year or so, rarely more than 1-1.5
months in advance. I seem to get reasonably cheap fares on the dates
I need. I usually buy from consolidators like Trailfinders and such.
Of course, this is just one person's experience, but somehow I doubt
that every Brit on a budget plans his or her vacation a year in advance.

Actually many of us do!

Quite often holiday plans need to be submitted to employers a year in
advance at the beginning of the 'holiday year' - if only to ensure adequate
work cover throughout the year.

My employer works on a January - December holiday year, my partners employer
works on an April - March holiday year. We both have to liaise with
colleagues to ensure that staffing levels are adequate throughout the whole
year.

We are quite fortunate that we don't have to stick to school holidays but it
can be an absolute nightmare for colleagues who are limited by this - they
grab the package holidays and/or flights as soon as possible as you simply
can't leave it to chance to book a holiday for two adults and three kids a
month before you want to go if you are limited to the last two weeks of
July!

My company has a rule that once your holiday dates are submitted then if a
company meeting/conference is scheduled during your pre-booked holiday dates
then you are OK not to attend - I book my holidays as far in advance as
possible!

Having said that, if you can travel at quite short notice there are bargains
to be had - we too have used Trailfinders for some cracking long haul
flights at short notice (we always keep a week or two holiday back for
'just-in-case').

Happy Travels.

Nigel.

In article .net,
Hilary wrote:

Since the fares for June 2007 aren't out yet, I can't do the
experiment right away, but I went to a random UK-based airfare site
(flights4less.co.uk) and compared GLA-MCO fares for 2 adults and 2
kids for Aug 1-14, 2006 (presumably, main vacation season) and Apr
1-14, 2007.

Which one do you think was lower?

Well, let's see. Peak season 2006 vs shoulder season 2007.

Well, peak season 2006 is cheaper 1 month in advance than shoulder
season 2007 9 months in advance. Who coulda thunk.

I buy UK-originating tickets twice a year or so, rarely more than 1-1.5
months in advance. I seem to get reasonably cheap fares on the dates
I need. I usually buy from consolidators like Trailfinders and such.
Of course, this is just one person's experience, but somehow I doubt
that every Brit on a budget plans his or her vacation a year in advance.

What's the destination and the month of travel?

Last year it was London-Houston for July and London-Windhoek for August.

It is true that on some routes the cheaper seats vanish within about 6
weeks of being released. I can see that you've never travelled on routes
like this or tried to book them.

Apparently, you haven't either, because you still haven't given me a
flight and a date for which the fare will not drop between the moment
the flight opens for booking and, say, 2 months out.

In article ,
Nigel wrote:

I buy UK-originating tickets twice a year or so, rarely more than 1-1.5
months in advance. I seem to get reasonably cheap fares on the dates
I need. I usually buy from consolidators like Trailfinders and such.
Of course, this is just one person's experience, but somehow I doubt
that every Brit on a budget plans his or her vacation a year in advance.

Actually many of us do!

Quite often holiday plans need to be submitted to employers a year in
advance at the beginning of the 'holiday year' - if only to ensure adequate
work cover throughout the year.

Wow, that's pretty harsh! I'll try to remember this next time somebody
brings up how horrible vacation policies are in the US

"VS" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Nigel wrote:

I buy UK-originating tickets twice a year or so, rarely more than 1-1.5
months in advance. I seem to get reasonably cheap fares on the dates
I need. I usually buy from consolidators like Trailfinders and such.
Of course, this is just one person's experience, but somehow I doubt
that every Brit on a budget plans his or her vacation a year in advance.

Actually many of us do!

Quite often holiday plans need to be submitted to employers a year in
advance at the beginning of the 'holiday year' - if only to ensure
adequate
work cover throughout the year.

Wow, that's pretty harsh! I'll try to remember this next time somebody
brings up how horrible vacation policies are in the US


Err not so horrible when you consider that I get nearly six weeks holiday a
year + statutory bank holidays. Most of my mates in the US seem to be lucky
if they get three weeks a year!

Don't misunderstand me - I don't *have* to put my holiday requests in a year
in advance, but by doing so it enables me to get the weeks that I want and
can plan accordingly. Which brings us back to the point that Hilary made
that yes indeed, some of us do book a year in advance (if we want to!).

Happy Travels.

Nigel.

Hilary wrote:
Airlines with serious hedging are much more protected against this

It'd be interesting to know which airlines have this sort of flexibility -
is there a webpage somewhere that lists it, or is it a matter of searching
for each airline individually?


I don't know if there is a comprehensive list. Soutwest is one of the
more famous cases because they had locked in a very large percentage of
their fuel needs at $25 per barrel. I think their current edges are at a
higher price, but still quite low compared to the rest of the industry.
This means that they know how much most of their flights will cost to
operate well in advance and are sheltered by wild fluctuations.

Their hedges not only allow WN to offer remain profitable without too
many fuel increases, but it also give WN assurance that a ticket sold
today will still be profitable 6 months down the road.

Delta sold its hedge contracts for 80 million just before the fuel
prices started to go up big time. That year alone, the fuel increases
added $400 million to Delta's fuel bill. They haven't recovered since.

VS wrote:
Well, peak season 2006 is cheaper 1 month in advance than shoulder
season 2007 9 months in advance. Who coulda thunk.

You need to look at more than just published fares. You need to look at
available fares. If you are trying to catch a LAX-SYD flight around
20-23 december, seats may be sold quickly, even though the fare still
apperas on the listings. And because the flight would be near full well
before travcel dats, the airline has no reason to offer a seat sale
during that period. But if you look between christmas and new years, you
will likely see seat sales because this is traditionally a less busy
week. So travelling on that week, you are better off waiting. But
travelling just before christmas, then you need to book well in advance.


Last year it was London-Houston for July and London-Windhoek for August.

"August" is a very long period. Not a very focused number of days with a
big rush. "May" is not a busy period for banks, but mother's day is
the year's busiest day for credit card transactiosn because everyone
buys flowers on the same day in the morning.

thanksgiving weekend is a very busy time for US airlines, but november
is not a busy month. You're not going to find too many seat sales that
apply on thanksgiving weekend. But you will find them for the rest of november.


Apparently, you haven't either, because you still haven't given me a
flight and a date for which the fare will not drop between the moment
the flight opens for booking and, say, 2 months out.



Hilary gave you specific examples (London-Sydney just before christmas
if I remember well).

In article , nobody wrote:

Well, peak season 2006 is cheaper 1 month in advance than shoulder
season 2007 9 months in advance. Who coulda thunk.

You need to look at more than just published fares. You need to look at
available fares.

Did you read my post? These fares are available to anyone with a
credit card. I typed in Glasgow to Orlando into a random UK travel site
(www.flights4less.co.uk), and the tickets for travel in August 2006
(August 1 through 14, presumably peak season for travel from Scotland
to Florida) are cheaper than the tickets for April 1-14.

This is not surprising at all. Cheapest tickets are usually sold
4 to 1 months before the date of travel, not 9.5 months in advance.
I am sure tickets for the same dates in April will be selling much
cheaper come January.

If you are trying to catch a LAX-SYD flight around
20-23 december, seats may be sold quickly, even though the fare still
apperas on the listings.

What is now, late June? These flights have been open for booking for
half a year now, and there is still plenty of availability between
LAX and SYD, at lowest published fares.

Qantas has every date between Dec 20 and Dec 23 available for $1900
roundtrip or so. Pricey, of course, but it's the lowest published
fare for these dates. Consolidators seem to have the same dates for
less on UA.

But travelling just before christmas, then you need to book well in advance.

Well in advance, maybe. But not 12 months in advance.

Last year it was London-Houston for July and London-Windhoek for August.

"August" is a very long period. Not a very focused number of days with a
big rush.

She asked a question, I answered. In this particular case, I had zero
flexibility on dates, and was buying my ticket 3 weeks in advance.
It wasn't a big deal - I called a few consolidators in the UK and bought
it from the cheapest one. It certainly would not have occurred to
me to buy a ticket like this 12 months in advance. Heck, Air Namibia
had not even been flying to London 12 months prior

Apparently, you haven't either, because you still haven't given me a
flight and a date for which the fare will not drop between the moment
the flight opens for booking and, say, 2 months out.

Hilary gave you specific examples (London-Sydney just before christmas
if I remember well).

It's a pretty bad example, because lowest published fares for these
dates are still plentifully available, and you can probably get a much
better deal by calling around a bit. Now, would I wait to buy these
tickets until November? Probably not. But booking them 12 months in
advance doesn't make much sense, either - they are not going anywhere
in a hurry.

VS wrote:
Qantas has every date between Dec 20 and Dec 23 available for $1900
roundtrip or so. Pricey, of course, but it's the lowest published
fare for these dates. Consolidators seem to have the same dates for
less on UA.

How do you know they are the lowest published fares for those dates ?
Are you 100% sure that whatever web site you are using isn't filtering
out fares that are no longer available ?


There are also cases of tour operators blocking large amount of seats
early on and later on releasing seats they may not need. Booking your
seats before the tour operators do means you have an assured place on
that aircraft at the lowest fare available at that time. Wait until the
tour operators release their unused seats and you risk not getting a
seat at all or not getting a seat at the lowest fare.

It really depends on the routes and specific dates.

A different example: this spring, a ferry, the Queen of the North sank
in BC. BF Ferries is stuck with only one ship capable of doing this open
water run through the inside passage, down from 2, and that ship has
less capacity than the QofN. Right now, there is no available space in
September because as soon as it happened, tour operators booked all
available space on all sailings to keep their options opened, and BC
Ferries is now working with them to release seats the tour operators
won't be using on a week by week basis. Those who had booked as soon as
the new schedules were announced would have had assured place on the
date of their choice. Thos who didn't will have to wait until probablty
a few weeks before their sailing time to get a confirmation and this may
wreck their plans.

There are times when paying a bit extra for a regular apex fare ends up
being more convenienty because you then have an assured seat on the day
of travel of your choice. Of course, that far ahead, you risk the
schedule changing as well. (and this comes back to Delta having higher
risk of changing its schedules in the next 12 months).