French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis

I will need Euro $ this summer, I can't help but think this 'Non' vote
by the French will weaken the Euro generally... but may strengthen the
Pound Sterling... still (hopefully) a net gain for me.

I hope the recent decline against U.S.$ was not this outcome already
built-in to the market. For a real drop, China will have to float its
currency and there is increasing pressure to force them to do that.

jay
Sun May 29, 2005




http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=4620734
Sun 29 May 2005

5:13pm (UK)
French 'Non' to Constitution Would Plunge EU into Crisis

By Andrew Woodcock, PA Political Correspondent

Millions of French voters today went to the polls in a referendum on
the proposed European Constitution whose outcome will have a profound
impact on the course of British politics.
A no vote could plunge the EU into crisis, and would raise question
marks over whether Britain will go ahead with its own referendum,
pencilled in for spring next year.
Prime Minister Tony Blair is expected to hold urgent talks with fellow
EU leaders in the event of French voters saying ÒnonÓ, but it is
unlikely that a way forward will be agreed before a June 16 summit of
EU leaders in Brussels.
Final opinion polls predicted victory for the ÒnonÓ camp by a margin of
as much as 10 points. However, the same polls suggested as many as 20%
of voters were yet to make up their minds.
Supporters of the constitution fear that a no vote could set off a
domino effect in upcoming referendums in the Netherlands, Poland,
Denmark and the UK. There are many who doubt that any treaty can
survive rejection by France, which has always been at the heart of the
European project.
Wrangling over what to do about a French no vote threatens to
overshadow BritainÕs six-month presidency of the EU, which begins on
July 1.
Polling stations opened across France at 7am UK time and were due to
close 12 hours later, except in the cities of Paris and Lyon, where
voters could cast their ballots until 9pm UK time. Exit polls were
expected immediately after the final vote is cast, but the official
result is not due until tomorrow morning.
The Interior Ministry in Paris announced that, by midday, one in four
of the 42 million entitled to vote had already turned out to do so.
BritainÕs European Commissioner Peter Mandelson Ð a close ally of the
Prime Minister Ð today suggested that the French could be asked to
re-run their referendum if they vote no.
This would salvage the constitutional process, at least temporarily,
and clear the way for remaining EU members, including the UK, to carry
on with their ratification processes as planned. Mr Blair has said the
referendum will go ahead so long as there is still a treaty to vote on.
Mr Mandelson today told Sky NewsÕ Sunday With Adam Boulton: ÒI donÕt
think that would be absurd, because we would be asking the French
people to reflect, to hear the argument or the debate in the rest of
Europe and then to have a second opportunity to give their verdict
again in the light of that debate.
ÒWhat would be absurd is if you simply marched on and left the French
people and their views behind you. You couldnÕt do that.Ó
Mr MandelsonÕs predecessor in Brussels, the pro-European former Labour
leader Lord Kinnock, said he was hoping for a ÒouiÓ vote today, in
order to ensure Britain got its referendum and the period of public
debate that would precede it.
He told BBC1Õs Breakfast With Frost: ÒI really would like to get on
with nine to 12 months of real argument and, more important, proper
public information, so people can make a decision on the basis of
acquaintance with the facts and the real alternatives.Ó
But Liberal Democrat foreign affairs spokesman Sir Menzies Campbell
told Sky News: ÒIf France votes No, France having been part of the
engine room of Europe for so long, any suggestion that we might in
Britain go on and have a referendum on this topic is, quite frankly,
silly.Ó
Shadow foreign secretary Liam Fox said a no vote would offer Òa
wonderful opportunity for reform and to make European politicians think
againÓ.
He told Sky News: ÒI think we should have a British referendum if there
is a process ongoing.
ÒIt does seem from some of the views from the Commission that they
intend to continue the process and keep the issue alive and, if
necessary, ask the French to think again if they say No.Ó
All 25 EU member-states must ratify the constitution in order for it to
come into effect as planned in November next year. So far, nine have
done so, eight by parliamentary vote and just one Ð Spain Ð by
referendum.
About 1.5 million voters in FranceÕs overseas territories from the
Caribbean to Polynesia cast their ballots yesterday, with the results
to be kept under wraps until the end of voting in mainland France.


Latest News:

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On 29/05/05 19:52, in article , "Go Fig"
wrote:

I will need Euro $ this summer, I can't help but think this 'Non' vote
by the French will weaken the Euro generally... but may strengthen the
Pound Sterling... still (hopefully) a net gain for me.


Well I have seen the dollar at well over 1 dollar to the euro, and I have
seen the dollar at well under. Nobody anticipates parity again soon.
It might to to 1.2 dollar to the euro, maybe 1.15. No return soon to 1.35
however.

The problem of the dollar has nothing to do with the euro but the balance
of trade deficit. What to people do with them if they hold a lot of them?

Earl

Go Fig writes:

I will need Euro $ this summer, I can't help but think this 'Non' vote
by the French will weaken the Euro generally... but may strengthen the
Pound Sterling... still (hopefully) a net gain for me.

Actually a yes or no won't really make much difference. Europe and the
rest of the world will survive just fine in either case.

--
Transpose hotmail and mxsmanic in my e-mail address to reach me directly.

In article , Mxsmanic
wrote:

Go Fig writes:

I will need Euro $ this summer, I can't help but think this 'Non' vote
by the French will weaken the Euro generally... but may strengthen the
Pound Sterling... still (hopefully) a net gain for me.

Actually a yes or no won't really make much difference.

You don't think 5%-15% isn't much of a difference ?

The thrust behind the Constitution is economic, it will undoubtedly
have a weakening effect on the Euro... that is if the predictions come
true.


The euro closed Friday, May 27, at $1.2584, rebounding after the survey
by Paris-based CSA showed opposition to the treaty may be waning. It
has weakened 7.1 percent against the dollar this year.


``We will have a problem with the euro'' following the French vote,
said Guy Stern, who oversees $17.8 billion in assets as chief
investment officer of Credit Suisse Asset Management's German business
in Frankfurt. ``It could depreciate 5 percent to 10 percent.''
In a Merrill Lynch & Co. survey released May 17, 71 percent of European
fund managers said a ``No'' would weaken the euro.


jay
Sun May 29, 2005




Europe and the
rest of the world will survive just fine in either case.

Go Fig writes:

You don't think 5%-15% isn't much of a difference ?

I don't think it really makes that much difference whether the
constitution is ratified or not. The same trends will continue either
way, towards a gradual elimination of democracy and an ever-increasing
expansion of bureaucracy.

The thrust behind the Constitution is economic, it will undoubtedly
have a weakening effect on the Euro... that is if the predictions come
true.

The main problems with the constitution are that it is too long and
complicated, and that it provides very poor representation for the
population it is intended to govern.

The euro closed Friday, May 27, at $1.2584, rebounding after the survey
by Paris-based CSA showed opposition to the treaty may be waning. It
has weakened 7.1 percent against the dollar this year.

Wow.

--
Transpose hotmail and mxsmanic in my e-mail address to reach me directly.

Mxsmanic wrote:

The main problems with the constitution are that it is too long and
complicated, and that it provides very poor representation for the
population it is intended to govern.


That's what I've heard. Anyplace I can go see this document online?

On 29 May 2005 16:21:16 -0700, wrote:



Mxsmanic wrote:

The main problems with the constitution are that it is too long and
complicated, and that it provides very poor representation for the
population it is intended to govern.


That's what I've heard. Anyplace I can go see this document online?

http://european-convention.eu.int/bienvenue.asp?lang=EN

Jim.

Jim Ley wrote:
On 29 May 2005 16:21:16 -0700, wrote:



That's what I've heard. Anyplace I can go see this document online?

http://european-convention.eu.int/bienvenue.asp?lang=EN

Jim.

We heard the Euro would weaken. The last time we were in Paris the Euro
went from $0.85 all the way up to $1.29. We had to leave, we couldn't
afford it. We miss it and would like to return...is it bad to hope for
a weaker Euro?

On Sun, 29 May 2005 20:43:26 +0200, Earl Evleth
wrote:

On 29/05/05 19:52, in article , "Go Fig"
wrote:

I will need Euro $ this summer, I can't help but think this 'Non' vote
by the French will weaken the Euro generally... but may strengthen the
Pound Sterling... still (hopefully) a net gain for me.


Well I have seen the dollar at well over 1 dollar to the euro, and I have
seen the dollar at well under. Nobody anticipates parity again soon.
It might to to 1.2 dollar to the euro, maybe 1.15. No return soon to 1.35
however.

The problem of the dollar has nothing to do with the euro but the balance
of trade deficit. What to people do with them if they hold a lot of them?

Earl

Yet another subject on which you have absolutely no expertise but
shoot you fool mouth about.

writes:

The problem of the dollar has nothing to do with the euro but the balance
of trade deficit. What to people do with them if they hold a lot of them?

Earl

Yet another subject on which you have absolutely no expertise but
shoot you fool mouth about.

Strangely enough, a lot of financial analysts agree with Earl. The weak
dollar is the result of serious and durable problems with the U.S.
budget, whereas the decision of France not to ratify the European
constitution isn't expected to have more than a small and temporary
effect on the euro.

--
Transpose hotmail and mxsmanic in my e-mail address to reach me directly.