International Real Estate price rises-where are the bubbles?

The European Wall Street Journal had an article on this June 16th

The gave a bar chart for 11 countries.

Contrary to popular thinking the "bubble" is not so large globally
in the USA. They gave 1 yr and 3 yr changes

For the 3 year change

South Africa +95%
Shanghai China +68%
Spain +63%
Austrailia +56%
UK +50%
France +48%
Brazil +33%
Canada +31%
USA +29%
Thailand +29%
SWEDEN +27%


Those figures include that last year.
The last year results were


South Africa +28%
Shanghai China +27%
Spain +17%
Austrailia -3%
UK +11%
France +15%
Brazil +7%
Canada +10%
USA +11%
Thailand +13%
SWEDEN +10%


Paris has been fairly hot, the hottest arrondissement last year was the 11th
which had a 20% increase last year. That made me feel good since I
encouraged a friend of ours to buy there about 4 years ago, saying that it
look likely it would take off.

I live in the most expensive arrondissement where the prices average now
around 7000 euros/sq meter, up from about 5000 just a couple of years
ago. The llth is around 4000 now so it started low and inflated more.

Anyway, Greenspan did mentioned that in the US, there are local bubbles but
broadly and by comparison the US price increases are "modest".

Earl

"Earl Evleth" wrote in message
...

The European Wall Street Journal had an article on this June 16th

SNIP

Paris has been fairly hot, the hottest arrondissement last year was
the 11th
which had a 20% increase last year. That made me feel good since I
encouraged a friend of ours to buy there about 4 years ago, saying
that it
look likely it would take off.

SNIP

Anyway, Greenspan did mentioned that in the US, there are local
bubbles but
broadly and by comparison the US price increases are "modest".

IMO, Mr. G. is "lying with statistics".

There certainly are places in the USA with very rapid price increases
.... like 20+% per year. Quite a few major cities have seen rises of
arounbd 100% in the past 5 years. California cities fit this number,
as do Washington, DC, & suburbs, and places in Florida like Naples and
the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Palm Beach region. Many of these
now-expensive homes are being bought with interest-only or
variable-rate mortgages. A formula for a crash if interest rates soar.
And in south Florida, condos are changing hands at ever higher prices
a number of times DURING CONSTRUCTION ("flipping").
http://www.condoflip.com/ The business section of the Sun-Sentinel
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/ runs frequent articles about housing
price increases.

I was recently in Dayton, Ohio. House prices there are roughly
one-half to one-third what a similar house would cost in the
Washington area. They haven't had the rampant price rises, 20% vs 94%
in the past 5 years. Most places in the Rust Belt have only seen 20%
rises over 5 years.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/...ide/P85324.asp
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/...ide/P85333.asp

In article , Robert J Carpenter
wrote:

"Earl Evleth" wrote in message
...

The European Wall Street Journal had an article on this June 16th

SNIP

Paris has been fairly hot, the hottest arrondissement last year was
the 11th
which had a 20% increase last year. That made me feel good since I
encouraged a friend of ours to buy there about 4 years ago, saying
that it
look likely it would take off.

SNIP

Anyway, Greenspan did mentioned that in the US, there are local
bubbles but
broadly and by comparison the US price increases are "modest".

IMO, Mr. G. is "lying with statistics".

There certainly are places in the USA with very rapid price increases
... like 20+% per year. Quite a few major cities have seen rises of
arounbd 100% in the past 5 years. California cities fit this number,
as do Washington, DC, & suburbs, and places in Florida like Naples and
the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Palm Beach region. Many of these
now-expensive homes are being bought with interest-only or
variable-rate mortgages. A formula for a crash if interest rates soar.

and prices drop, not likely in most markets save perhaps NYC and south
Florida.

jay
Sat Jun 25, 2005




And in south Florida, condos are changing hands at ever higher prices
a number of times DURING CONSTRUCTION ("flipping").
http://www.condoflip.com/ The business section of the Sun-Sentinel
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/ runs frequent articles about housing
price increases.

I was recently in Dayton, Ohio. House prices there are roughly
one-half to one-third what a similar house would cost in the
Washington area. They haven't had the rampant price rises, 20% vs 94%
in the past 5 years. Most places in the Rust Belt have only seen 20%
rises over 5 years.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/...ide/P85324.asp
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/...ide/P85333.asp

On 25/06/05 13:12, in article , "Robert J
Carpenter" wrote:


Anyway, Greenspan did mentioned that in the US, there are local
bubbles but
broadly and by comparison the US price increases are "modest".

IMO, Mr. G. is "lying with statistics".

There certainly are places in the USA with very rapid price increases
... like 20+% per year. Quite a few major cities have seen rises of
arounbd 100% in the past 5 years. California cities fit this number,
as do Washington, DC, & suburbs, and places in Florida like Naples and
the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Palm Beach region. Many of these
now-expensive homes are being bought with interest-only or
variable-rate mortgages. A formula for a crash if interest rates soar.
And in south Florida, condos are changing hands at ever higher prices
a number of times DURING CONSTRUCTION ("flipping").
http://www.condoflip.com/ The business section of the Sun-Sentinel
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/ runs frequent articles about housing
price increases.

OK those are the bubbles. Perhaps you wish to say the Greenspan did
not adequately stress the dangers of the bubbles which exist. I am
not one of his fans, by the way. I think he pushed interest rates
far too low for far too long.

The problem is that one is in the speculative (final) state of the bubble.
The WSJ had an article about using letters of credit to make down payments
on Beachfront Condos in Georgia (I believe) with the hope that the price
would rise before the projects was finished. One then sells. Letters of
credit do not require up front money but a promise to pay. The US has
a poor savings rate and is not able even sponsor its own growing debt
much less asset inflation. So foreign money is eventually the cause
of this malaise.

I was recently in Dayton, Ohio. House prices there are roughly
one-half to one-third what a similar house would cost in the
Washington area. They haven't had the rampant price rises, 20% vs 94%
in the past 5 years. Most places in the Rust Belt have only seen 20%
rises over 5 years.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/...ide/P85324.asp
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/...ide/P85333.asp

Youre a good bubble, you are

"Earl Evleth" a écrit dans le message de news:
...

The European Wall Street Journal had an article on this June 16th

The gave a bar chart for 11 countries.

Contrary to popular thinking the "bubble" is not so large globally
in the USA. They gave 1 yr and 3 yr changes

For the 3 year change

South Africa +95%
Shanghai China +68%
Spain +63%
Austrailia +56%
UK +50%
France +48%
Brazil +33%
Canada +31%
USA +29%
Thailand +29%
SWEDEN +27%


Those figures include that last year.
The last year results were


South Africa +28%
Shanghai China +27%
Spain +17%
Austrailia -3%
UK +11%
France +15%
Brazil +7%
Canada +10%
USA +11%
Thailand +13%
SWEDEN +10%


Paris has been fairly hot, the hottest arrondissement last year was the
11th
which had a 20% increase last year. That made me feel good since I
encouraged a friend of ours to buy there about 4 years ago, saying that it
look likely it would take off.

I live in the most expensive arrondissement where the prices average now
around 7000 euros/sq meter, up from about 5000 just a couple of years
ago. The llth is around 4000 now so it started low and inflated more.

Anyway, Greenspan did mentioned that in the US, there are local bubbles
but
broadly and by comparison the US price increases are "modest".

Earl