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#21
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Car Free Fantasy
Following up to Olivers
While we might argue constantly over the state of Cuban economy and the financial outlook for Cubans, the bottom line is that as long as Fidel Castro or a government drawn from successors who emulate his policies remains in place, Cuba's economy and Cubans will lag behind the country's economic potential (punished as it were for the sins of its masters, an undeserved fate for most Cubans, and one not easily avoided). If US had lifted its sanctions years ago Cuba would probably not now be either poor or communist. -- Mike Reid "Art is the lie that reveals the truth" P.Picasso Wasdale-Lake district-Thames path-London "http://www.fellwalk.co.uk" -- you can email us@ this site Eat-walk-Spain "http://www.fell-walker.co.uk" -- dontuse@ all, it's a spamtrap |
#22
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Car Free Fantasy
The Reids extrapolated from data available...
If US had lifted its sanctions years ago Cuba would probably not now be either poor or communist. If you really believe that, it may be time to change your prescription. Until 1990 at least Castro and his Soviet partners would have created their own "embargo" in the same sense that Eastern European states certainly had tightly controlled access and economies which lagged decades behind the rest of the Western world. After 1991, unless some country were willing to face international opprobrium by sponsoring (or actually participating in) a well funded and equipped insurgency, certain to be lengthy and bloody, much worse PR than Iraq or Viet Nam, there was not going to be an internal opposition with even a fraction of the popular strength necessary to overthrow Fidel. A major problem which faces any post Castro government continues to be the potential financial claims from the children and grandchildren of middle class Cubans who suffered expropriation. It's one thing to confiscate a sugar mill, but it wasn't just the rich who were called upon to enrich the state with their assets. Can you imagine the inevitable settling of personal scores that will come with the institution of a new government, be it repressive or anarchist, socialist or laissez faire capitalist? Some observant political scientists might claim that it would take a couple of decades to elevate Cubans to a state of grace and readiness for participatory democracy. Comparing Cuba to the Dominican Republic and Haiti seems pretty unrealistic. In 1959, Cuba's economy and society (even under a petty tyrant - former Army sergeant) were immeasurably more healthy than those of either. The Dominican Republic has made substantial strides since 1965 or so (starting pretty far back, with a sort of familial set of dictators who spent more on their wardrobes and decorations than on infrastructure or education), while Haiti's strides have been almost as great, simply backwards toward the Stone Age, it turning out that even a RCatholic priest, the status of his frock questionable, can be expected to employ repression and violence at about the same level as professed dictators. I'm sure that Padre Aristide's Swiss depositories are adequately filled to allow comfortable asylum. I wouldn't want the SAfrican taxpayer to have to maintain his inevitably lavish and high security villa. Better and cheaper perhaps that the US had not dispatched a corporal's guard to whisk him out of the country, and simply left him at the palace, where the advancing mob could have been counted upon to hack him into convenient souvenir sized gobbets. Damned for "forcing" him to leave, we would have been even more greatly damned had we allowed him to be sliced and diced, Haiti's traditional treatment of rulers who overstay their days in the sun. And the gentle Swiss would have never sent the money back to Haiti, likely melding it with other ill-gotten gains from a century of depositors who met their ends before presenting their checks. TMO |
#23
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Car Free Fantasy
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#24
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Cuba (WAS: Car Free Fantasy
Sjoerd wrote: Can you imagine how well the economy and the lives of Cubans would be, especially given the natural advantages of geography and skills, had they had been able to lose Castro y amigos, About as good as Haiti or the Dominican Republic perhaps? Castro's revolution *really* benefited the poor and rural folk, who were living in horrendous and even slave - like conditions (thanks in large part to US companies like United Fruit, etc.) Much of the Cuban middle and upper classes (who had a prosperous US - style lifestyle) fled because they lost everything when Castro came to power...they had nothing to lose by going to Miami or wherever. The poor and rural folk are still pretty poor materially speaking but unlike other Third World poor they have access to free education, health care, etc. That's why Castro is still fairly popular among that strata of people...he gave the downtrodden some real dignity. In a best case scenario Cuba without a revolution *might* have turned out something like today's Costa Rica (admittedly though that is a real stretch, given the propensity of the US to meddle in Cuba). In 1959 Cuba ranked (comparativly speaking and in urban areas) high in many indicators as compared to most other Latin American/Caribbean nations.... Given the drug presence in the Caribbean and the always present Cuban corruption, I think today in an alternative timeline capitalist Cuba a lot of the Cuban economy would be "narco - driven"...the US mafia were well - entrenched pre - 1959 and they ran the drugs, prostitution, money laundering, gambling etc. rackets (this was largely in response to US govt. crackdowns on the Mob in Las Vegas and elsewhere). I might have to post a "what if" about this subject on soc.history.what-if ;-) -- Best Greg |
#25
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Car Free Fantasy
poldy wote: They're alredy predicting car ownership for China, which also is heavily reliant on bicycles. IIRC Shanghai has recently banned bicycles on many major streets (per a _New York Times_ article from a few months back). And guess how many people are in many of those shiny new Passats and Buicks that the newly - affluent Chinese are buying? Yep, you guessed it: *one*.... One of the first goals of many newly affluent people everywhere is to buy a car (viz the ex - USSR and it's former European satellites). -- Best Greg |
#26
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Car Free Fantasy
George W. Russell wrote:
Miguel Cruz wrote: The closest thing to a real car-free city I've seen is Saigon. Millions of people and in many parts of town you'll only see one car for every 500 mopeds. Cars are so slow there that they're only used by people for whom the prestige value is worth the wait. Which points to the eventual reason why many cities will probably have to do without cars: In places with truly high population density, the cars just won't fit. Saigon's streets are completely saturated already with vehicles that are nimbler and 1/8 the size of cars. Replace them and you'll have permanent and total gridlock. I go to Saigon once or twice a year and each time I can't fail notice the seemingly huge increase in the number of private four-wheeled vehicles in the city. Cars will come to Saigon just as they did everywhere else -- eventually. The only limiting factor is cost. I disagree. The density on the streets is just too high. Cars won't fit. Now you see 200 a day instead of 10 a few years ago, but that rate of growth can't go on indefinitely. The main roads are already incredibly wide, and they're packed solid with machines that fit about 8 times as many people per unit of road space as cars. miguel -- Hit The Road! Photos and tales from around the world: http://travel.u.nu |
#27
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Car Free Fantasy
Miguel Cruz wrote in message ...
George W. Russell wrote: Miguel Cruz wrote: The closest thing to a real car-free city I've seen is Saigon. Millions of people and in many parts of town you'll only see one car for every 500 mopeds. Cars are so slow there that they're only used by people for whom the prestige value is worth the wait. Which points to the eventual reason why many cities will probably have to do without cars: In places with truly high population density, the cars just won't fit. Saigon's streets are completely saturated already with vehicles that are nimbler and 1/8 the size of cars. Replace them and you'll have permanent and total gridlock. I go to Saigon once or twice a year and each time I can't fail notice the seemingly huge increase in the number of private four-wheeled vehicles in the city. Cars will come to Saigon just as they did everywhere else -- eventually. The only limiting factor is cost. I disagree. The density on the streets is just too high. Cars won't fit. Now you see 200 a day instead of 10 a few years ago, but that rate of growth can't go on indefinitely. I'm sure that was said about Bangkok, Jakarta and Hong Kong. It's remarkable how places adapt to vast numbers of traffic. If Vietnam continues on its present rate of growth and increasing urban affluence the number of cars will grow. And they will fit ... somehow, same as they did elsewhere. What you will see over time is less street life as roads are widened and heavily used roads such as Nguyen Hue become more car-oriented. Neither Ho Chi Minh City nor Hanoi have any multistorey or large street-level car parks, though several are planned over the next few months. (Hey, another blight!). This year, Hanoi tried to restrict the number of motorcycles on the road by refusing to register them. All that did was increase the number of unregistered vehicles. Crackdowns are patchy because authorities fear alientating too much of the population, sparking social unrest. Both cities have tentative plans for light rail systems, but at cost estimates of US$2 billion for HCMC and $1 billion for Hanoi, don't hold your breath. Sorry, this is geographically off topic for r.t.e. and r.t.u-c Regards, George W. Russell Hanoi |
#28
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Car Free Fantasy
Olivers wrote in message ...
George W. Russell extrapolated from data available... Cars will come to Saigon just as they did everywhere else -- eventually. The only limiting factor is cost. After all, Vietnamese are only in their first generation of mass motorcycle ownership. "Return", not "come". There were a number of them around for a decade or so....(especially the black Cadillacs of Cholon). You are of course correct. And indeed probably before that, when Renaults, Darracqs and Clermont-Ferrands cruised Rue Catinat and surrounding byways. But I was thinking more of the kind of 5pm crowdstopping scenes that plague Sukhumvit/Queen's Road/Jl. Jend. Sudirman/take your pick of any major metropolitan throughway. They will most assuredly come to Vietnam's cities ... I just can't predict when. [ ...] like planners everywhere, they'll spend gadzillions building a freeway/grand boulevard to the airport. Alas, I suspect so, too. George W. Russell Hanoi |
#29
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Car Free Fantasy
"Miguel Cruz" schreef in bericht ... I disagree. The density on the streets is just too high. Cars won't fit. Cars didn't fit in Bangkok during most of the 1980's and 1990's. (until they constructed more roads and the Skytrain). Still, all Thais that could afford them bought cars. Talking to my Vietnamese colleagues, the same will happen in Hanoi and HCM City. Sjoerd |
#30
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Car Free Fantasy
Seriously,
The traffic with just the motorcycles and bicycles can completely gridlock at times depending on what is going on. There was an aids benefit at one of the turnabouts and it took almost 2 hours just to get through the intersection with a taxi. Even on a motorcycle it would have taken an hour. I don't think your off topic, this all relates to travel and it's information well received by people traveling to different places to know ahead of time what to expect. I drive in Saigon when I am there, but the rules of the road maybe similar, but they sure aren't practiced that way. I'd much prefer my wife to drive as she is used to it. We were clipped twice by other drivers on the same day. Usually not a problem but even in the city where the speeds are about 20-25 mph people still die from accidents. Let alone on the highways where you would think people are completely insane. LOL You're right about the cars, there are very few and the high taxes on them limits the people that can purchase. Usually it's the elite and those that have them, like to flaunt them. You'll always see the mercedes or lexus parked in front of the sidewalk cafes on Nguyen Hue so that everyone can see them. Myself I prefer driving a scooter as it would take you forever to get through town. "George W. Russell" wrote in message om... Miguel Cruz wrote in message ... George W. Russell wrote: Miguel Cruz wrote: The closest thing to a real car-free city I've seen is Saigon. Millions of people and in many parts of town you'll only see one car for every 500 mopeds. Cars are so slow there that they're only used by people for whom the prestige value is worth the wait. Which points to the eventual reason why many cities will probably have to do without cars: In places with truly high population density, the cars just won't fit. Saigon's streets are completely saturated already with vehicles that are nimbler and 1/8 the size of cars. Replace them and you'll have permanent and total gridlock. I go to Saigon once or twice a year and each time I can't fail notice the seemingly huge increase in the number of private four-wheeled vehicles in the city. Cars will come to Saigon just as they did everywhere else -- eventually. The only limiting factor is cost. I disagree. The density on the streets is just too high. Cars won't fit. Now you see 200 a day instead of 10 a few years ago, but that rate of growth can't go on indefinitely. I'm sure that was said about Bangkok, Jakarta and Hong Kong. It's remarkable how places adapt to vast numbers of traffic. If Vietnam continues on its present rate of growth and increasing urban affluence the number of cars will grow. And they will fit ... somehow, same as they did elsewhere. What you will see over time is less street life as roads are widened and heavily used roads such as Nguyen Hue become more car-oriented. Neither Ho Chi Minh City nor Hanoi have any multistorey or large street-level car parks, though several are planned over the next few months. (Hey, another blight!). This year, Hanoi tried to restrict the number of motorcycles on the road by refusing to register them. All that did was increase the number of unregistered vehicles. Crackdowns are patchy because authorities fear alientating too much of the population, sparking social unrest. Both cities have tentative plans for light rail systems, but at cost estimates of US$2 billion for HCMC and $1 billion for Hanoi, don't hold your breath. Sorry, this is geographically off topic for r.t.e. and r.t.u-c Regards, George W. Russell Hanoi |
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