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BKK Post: Shwedagon Closed in Rangoon
http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/21Sep2007_news19.php 21 September, 2007 ANALYSIS / BURMA : PUBLIC OUTRAGE OVER COST OF LIVING A social volcano ready to erupt For the first time in nearly 20 years, there have been sporadic but sustained public protests across Burma against rising food and fuel prices. And the ruling generals are getting nervous By LARRY JAGAN Political events in Burma have taken a sudden and surprising turn, with thousands of Buddhist monks demonstrating against the military regime in the past few days. These protest marches by the monks are likely to continue and grow, according to young monks in telephone interviews with foreign journalists based in Bangkok. With the revered monks now joining the public protests against the government, Burma's political crisis is coming to a major crossroads, with the future of the ruling military junta now increasingly uncertain. For the first time in nearly 20 years, there have been sporadic but sustained public protests in the streets of Rangoon and other provincial cities against the rising food and fuel prices. But the government's usual response _ a concerted crackdown on dissidents _ is beginning to backfire and has especially angered many of the country's Buddhist clergy. They have threatened to continue their protests this week against the violent treatment meted out to a group of them a little over a week ago. This political cauldron is now threatening to boil over and the generals appear to be at a loss over what they should do. Their greatest fear now seems about to be unleashed: mass protests led by students and monks, similar to those which brought down the dictator General Ne Win in 1988. At the same time international pressure on the junta to introduce political reform has increased in response to the brutal crackdown on the peaceful protesters. While the international community remained largely uninformed and unaware of the tragic events as they unfolded in Rangoon 19 years ago, this time they are extremely concerned and vocal. The UN secretary-general's special adviser, Ibrahim Gambari, plans to visit Burma within the next few weeks before reporting back to the UN General Assembly later next month. The issue of Burma is also certain to be put back on the UN Security Council agenda in the next few weeks, according to diplomats in New York. This will force Burma to call on its friends, especially China, for support. This time, though, their allies may be more cautious in their defence of the Burmese regime _ and may demand concessions in return for their votes. Last week China summoned Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win to Beijing where he met the senior Chinese state councillor Tang Jiaxuan at the headquarters of the Chinese government, Zhongnanhai. He was told in no uncertain terms that China could not tolerate an unstable Burma and feared that the protests were getting out of hand, according to Chinese diplomats. He strongly advised the Burmese government to treat the protests seriously and do nothing to endanger regional stability. The junta was also told to push forward with democratic reforms in order to ensure peace and stability. Then, on the weekend, another senior diplomatic delegation was dispatched to Moscow to muster support for the Burmese military regime as it faces further pressure at the United Nations and another attempt to secure a Security Council resolution. Last time China and Russia used their vetoes to prevent it being passed. All this is casting a long shadow over Burma's political future, with the junta increasing tentative in its plans. The key issue remains: how do the junta leaders intend to move forward with their proposed political reforms? A watershed was reached earlier this month, when the National Convention ended its constitutional discussions _ deliberations that took 14 years to conclude. The National Convention, which had been meeting intermittently since the beginning of 1993 to draw up a new charter, ended its last session with a document outlining the principles the junta has decided should be the basis of the new constitution. But clearly the guidelines endorsed by the 1,000 hand-picked members is intended to give the illusion of introducing democracy, while effectively leaving political power in the hands of the country's military rulers. The next step in Burma's return to so-called democracy will be a referendum on the new constitution, after it has been formally drafted, probably some time next year, according to government sources. Elections would then be held in 2009. At the closing session of the National Convention, acting Prime Minister General Thein Sein proudly presented the rough draft of the constitution _ which is the recipe for what the regime regards as disciplined democracy _ as a roaring success, ignoring the fact that the country's pro-democracy leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi who is currently under house arrest, and the numerous ethnic groups, have all been effectively shut out of the constitutional process. Under the guidelines for the new charter, a quarter of the seats in parliament will be reserved for military appointees. The president must be a military man, while key ministries, including defence, will still be controlled by the military. The army would set its own budget without reference to the civilian government and the army commanders would retain the right to declare a state of emergency and seize power at any time they deemed necessary. The charter also fails to meet the demands of the country's rebel ethnic groups, who have been demanding a measure of autonomy and cultural rights. While the junta mulls over what it will do next, its brutal suppression of the recent protests against rising fuel and food prices reflects its strong distaste for real democratic reform. The authorities have arrested hundreds of people for organising and participating in small protest marches throughout Burma in the last few weeks. Several thousand pro-government vigilantes, armed with wooden batons and sticks have attacked the marchers in Rangoon and throughout the country, leaving them badly beaten. Over the past few weeks sporadic, irregular public protests against soaring inflation have rocked the Burmese regime, since the government's sudden increase in fuel prices. Small peaceful protest marches are continuing to be staged in many parts of Burma, especially in the main commercial city, Rangoon. These demonstrations have spread to several other parts of the country. In the most critical incident, nearly two weeks ago 100 monks took to the streets of Pakokku, a small town near Mandalay in central Burma. They were beaten by vigilantes, leaving several monks badly injured. The protest was eventually quelled when the security forces opened fire on them. The monks have since demanded an apology from the government for their mistreatment. In many places throughout Burma, including Pakokku, the monks have refused to accept alms from soldiers. Although at present this is only happening in a few places within several key centres, including Mandalay, Moulmein, Pegu and Rangoon, observers believe it will snowball if the regime does not make some concessions to the monks, including an apology. The military's characteristic response has been to step up repression. In an unprecedented move, police and security forces have been deployed outside the monasteries in the key Buddhist cities of Mandalay and Pakokku, as well as Rangoon to prevent the monks from getting involved in further protests. They issued appeals through the state-controlled media asking the monks and public not to come out into the streets. Monasteries in many towns were shut down earlier this week and the monks, especially novice monks, were told to return to their homes. A key teaching university for monks in Rangoon has also been closed. Hundreds of monks took to the streets in Rangoon, Pegu and Sittwe to demonstrate their anger at the military's actions on Tuesday _ the anniversary of the military coup 19 years ago which brought the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) to power, when it was then known as the State Law and Order Restoration Council. The military also seized the most important temple in Rangoon, the Shwedagon Pagoda, to prevent the marching monks from entering the temple. It was closed to the public and occupied by hundreds of troops _ reminiscent of the events of 1988. Public protests are very rare in Burma as the military regime keeps a tight grip on the population. But the numbers joining these marches have grown since more than 100 people joined the first demonstration in mid-August, demanding that the government immediately lower fuel and food prices. ''The current protests are still economic for sure,'' said Khin Ohnmar, a leading Burmese activist based in Thailand with close links to the organisers of the protests. ''But everyone recognises that the root cause of the inflation is the junta's economic mismanagement.'' Many activists are already drawing comparisons between the events of the last few weeks and the mass pro-democracy demonstrations in 1988 which forced the authoritarian leader Gen Ne Win to resign. Mass protests, involving students, civil servants, workers and monks brought the country to a standstill for months until the military brutally crushed the movement and seized power in a coup on Sept 18, 1988. So far the signs are that while people are angry, they are not yet prepared to risk joining the protests. But there is no doubt a fury is bubbling away under the surface. Rising rice prices would almost certainly be the last straw. And with the heavy rains and flooding in Burma's rice bowl, yields and supply will be substantially reduced compared to the last few years. ''A hungry man is an angry man,'' a Rangoon taxi driver told a foreign journalist recently. ''It's not human rights we are concerned about; we just want them [the military government] to stop treating us like animals,'' one of the protest organisers said. Although public anger and the protest marchers are still only focusing on economic issues, it will inevitably turn political, according to Ms Khin Ohnmar. ''At the moment the movement is not talking about power at this stage. But by concentrating on what really concerns people in their daily lives, people will be encouraged to participate and that will eventually generate a momentum for real change. That's what happened in 1988,'' she said. The dramatic events of August 1988 took months to evolve. It started, in fact, in late 1987 with demonetisation and the withdrawal of some currency notes, which wiped out people's savings overnight. The initial peaceful protest marches were suspended after the regime violently cracked down on them. But some three months later the students initiated a fresh series of protests which grew into a mass movement by August. The involvement of the country's Buddhist monks proved critical at that time. For the first time since the momentous events of 1988 brought down the country's dictator and his one-party rule, the Burmese military government is facing concerted public protests against its continued control of power. If the regime mishandles these small, sporadic protests they could easily escalate into demonstrations demanding the end of military rule. ''Burma is a social volcano ready to erupt,'' according to a leading Burmese businessman. ''These price increases may just be the spark that ignites it.'' ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ BURMA ACTION GROUP SAO Box 119, HUB University of Washington http://students.washington.edu/burma/ Seattle, WA 98195 |
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