Europe's Summer of 2003 Was Hottest in 500 Years

Yes so hot that I could not climb the Mont Blanc as I had planed

Earl Evleth wrote:

Travelers can anticipate hotter weather.

Earl

****




Europe's Summer of 2003 Was Hottest in 500 Years, Study Shows

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- The summer of 2003, when more than 20,000 people in
Europe were killed by extreme heat, was the continent's warmest for five
centuries, according to a study published today in the journal Science.

The study's lead scientist, climatologist Juerg Luterbacher, said Europeans
must prepare for worse to come, as their summers gradually resemble those of
countries closer to the equator.

``The long-term trend is clear,'' Luterbacher, of Switzerland's University
of Bern, said in a telephone interview. ``It's going to get warmer.''

Resulting droughts and fires will hurt farming and tourism and heat will
claim more lives, he said, echoing the concerns of reinsurers such as Swiss
Re, which this week put the cost of heat- related uninsured crop failures in
Europe at $12.3 billion in 2003.

The climate study, which took more than two years, was the first to focus on
Europe, Luterbacher, 35, said. Europeans' earliest personal accounts of the
weather were combined with data collected in later years to create a picture
of conditions across the continent. Previous studies have looked at the
entire Northern Hemisphere or the world, he said.

Historians

The scientists turned to historians to find what Europeans had written in
their diaries about their weather and its impact on trade, crops and
animals. Weather data records began in 1659, when the first thermometers and
barometers were put into use, in England, followed by widespread use of
instruments throughout central Europe by 1750, Luterbacher said.

The researchers filled gaps in the information by sampling ice from
Greenland and tree rings for evidence of changes in climate. Data was
gathered as far east as Russia and as far south as Turkey.

The results describe the period from 1500 to 1658 season by season. After
1659, the researchers have detailed Europe's weather month by month.

Last year's soaring temperatures in Europe hit France the hardest, with the
heat blamed for about 15,000 deaths during the first half of August, when
the temperature reached 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit). The thermometer
hit a record 38.1 degrees Celsius in the U.K., buckling rails along the
country's train lines. The drought-hit Danube river receded to a 100-year
low, revealing armored vehicles abandoned during World War II.

The heat wave began to envelope the continent just as Luterbacher and his
team were preparing to announce that their work had determined the hottest
European summer of the past 500 years was that of 1757. As temperatures
rose, they decided to wait and extend their research into 2003.

``It turned out the summer of 2003 was really the hottest,'' he said.

Year-Round Problem

Europe is getting warmer during the other seasons, too, the study shows. The
nine warmest overall years in Europe have occurred since 1989, the
researchers found.

Milder winters threaten European ski resorts that lie at lower altitudes,
the United Nations said in a report in December on the possible impact of
global warming. More than half of Switzerland's ski resorts in lower-lying
areas may lose business in coming decades because of lack of snow.
Scotland's Glenshee and Glencoe ski centers are for sale after the owner
said mild winters were making them unprofitable.

The upward trend in temperatures began more than 100 years ago and has
accelerated over the past five decades, Luterbacher said. The study found
the increases go beyond those that occur naturally as a result of the Sun or
volcanoes and point to human activity, consistent with the rise in
``greenhouse gases'' over the same period, he said.

``The last part of the 20th century and the start of the 21st century were
warmer than any time in the last 500 years,'' he said. Similar patterns have
been found by researchers studying world climate or the Northern Hemisphere,
he said.

Pollution

The study doesn't draw any conclusions about what's causing rising
temperatures or how to reverse the trend. Luterbacher blames industrial and
vehicle pollution and dismisses critics who say there isn't yet enough
evidence to make the connection.

``We have to reduce greenhouse gases,'' he said. ``We have to do something
now. We can't wait to have all the proof that humans are responsible.''

Damage caused by natural disasters increased 9 percent in 2003 to $60
billion and may rise more in coming years as global warming prompts more
weather-related catastrophes, reinsurer Munich Re said in December.

The Kyoto Protocol to limit global warming aims to reduce greenhouse gases,
especially the carbon dioxide produced by industry and vehicles, to 95
percent of 1990 levels by 2012. The U.S., the biggest producer of greenhouse
gases, hasn't ratified the treaty.

``The U.S. government is quite critical about the debate on human
influence'' on climate, Luterbacher said. ``We see signals it's warming.
It's warming in all seasons.''

Some scientists reject the greenhouse-gases theory, saying global warming is
a naturally occurring change in the Earth's climate.

The study by Luterbacher and his colleague was financed by the Swiss
National Science Foundation and the European Union.