the dollar past the 1.25 bar

It is currently trading at 1.2543,
well past its 1.25 "bar". I posted
a week ot so that it was "certainly"
headed to 1.26. Now 1.28 it the next
likely projection.

The 5 yr plot is show at

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=5y



ANALYSIS-Investor sights set on weaker dollar, stronger euro
Thursday 27 April 2006, 5:00am EST

By Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent

LONDON, April 27 (Reuters) - An increasingly hawkish European Central Bank
and a U.S. Federal Reserve set to take a break from tightening interest
rates have persuaded some of the world's biggest investors that the dollar's
decline is back.

After a year in which the U.S. currency gained against the euro on the back
of better cash returns and a more robust economic outlook the dollar has
been weakening again with the euro EUR= up around 5 percent this year at
around $1.24.

Now, a new Reuters poll suggests major investors believe this is not just a
short-term phenomenon and that the dollar is heading down and the euro up
for some time.

Such moves could raise concerns again about both the euro zone's nascent
and primarily export-driven economic recovery and the attractiveness of U.S.
assets.

The informal survey of strategists at 10 leading global investment firms
suggested the dollar will weaken slightly from current levels over the next
three months then dip more significantly by the end of 2006.

It showed a mid-range projection of $1.25 per euro in three months and
$1.28 at the end of the year. The range for year-end projections was $1.20
to $1.30.

If the euro does reach the $1.28 level in December it would mark a gain of
more than three percent from current levels and mean a rise of close to 8.5
percent for the year.

Significantly, nine out of the 10 respondents projected the dollar to be
weaker at year-end than currently, suggesting a broad consensus that decline
is in the air.

Three respondents offered 12-month projections of $1.30 to $1.35 which,
while not statistically significant, gave a hint that investors expect
dollar weakness to continue into 2007.

DEFICIT REDUX

Last year's dollar gain was primarily based on currency being drawn to the
higher U.S. interest rates on offer compared with those in the euro zone.

This masked and somewhat reversed the impact of a rising U.S. current
account deficit that has otherwise undermined the dollar, which tumbled from
around 83 U.S. cents to the euro in mid-2001 to a low of $1.36 at the end of
2004.

In an identical poll in October last year, investors predicted that the
impact of higher interest rates would begin to wane sometime this year,
leaving the U.S. current account deficit to hold sway. That now appears to
have happened.

"At the end of the day it's a function of interest rate differentials,"
said Ken Adams, head of global strategy at Scottish Widows Investment
Partnership.

The Fed has signalled that it is getting ready to end a cycle of tightening
rates that has seen 15 hikes to 4.75 percent since mid-2004.

At the same time, the ECB has been signalling that it plans more hikes to
go with the two it has made since December last year. ECB Vice President
Lucas Papademos said on Tuesday that further increases from 2.50 percent
were warranted this year.

Many investors also believe that the U.S. economy is set to slow in the
second half of this year while the euro zone is enjoying a relative revival.

U.S. HEGEMONY

Not everyone goes along with the weaker dollar scenario. AXA Investment
Managers was the lone dissenter in the poll, seeing the dollar at $1.20 to
the euro at the end of the year, higher than current rates.

Senior Strategist Chris Iggo said the reason is AXA's belief that the U.S.
economy will still dominate and have higher interest rates even if the gap
with Europe narrows.

"There is still a very positive interest rate differential," he said.
"(And) we don't see the U.S. economy going into any kind of recession."

AXA nonetheless trimmed its projections for dollar strength from a
previously more bullish stance.

Another argument in favour of the dollar is that a slowdown in U.S.
economic growth could spill over elsewhere.

That has Fortis Investments's Head of Allocation, Emiel van den
Heiligenberg, expecting the dollar to fall quickly against the euro in the
short-term but then to level off.

"When the U.S. economy slows the rest of world will as well," he said.
"Hence, (we see) the dollar in a range after a fall."

Either way, most investors do seem to have made up their mind that over the
long haul, the state of U.S. finances requires the dollar to decline.

"The dollar has to go structurally weaker," said Klaus Wiener, chief
economist at AMB Generali Asset Managers.

What are you Evleth, a currency trader now? Pompous blowhard! Do us a
favor and "GET LOST"

On Thu, 27 Apr 2006 19:21:55 +0200, Earl Evleth
wrote:


It is currently trading at 1.2543,
well past its 1.25 "bar". I posted
a week ot so that it was "certainly"
headed to 1.26. Now 1.28 it the next
likely projection.

The 5 yr plot is show at

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=5y

Why do you call it a "bar"? After all, even that web site
indicates that the dollar has exchanged well over 1.30 in the not
too distant past.


************* DAVE HATUNEN ) *************
* Tucson Arizona, out where the cacti grow *
* My typos & mispellings are intentional copyright traps *

There are no dollars in Europe spammer

"Earl Evleth" a écrit dans le message de news:
...

It is currently trading at 1.2543,
well past its 1.25 "bar". I posted
a week ot so that it was "certainly"
headed to 1.26. Now 1.28 it the next
likely projection.

The 5 yr plot is show at

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=5y



ANALYSIS-Investor sights set on weaker dollar, stronger euro
Thursday 27 April 2006, 5:00am EST

By Jeremy Gaunt, European Investment Correspondent

LONDON, April 27 (Reuters) - An increasingly hawkish European Central Bank
and a U.S. Federal Reserve set to take a break from tightening interest
rates have persuaded some of the world's biggest investors that the
dollar's
decline is back.

After a year in which the U.S. currency gained against the euro on the
back
of better cash returns and a more robust economic outlook the dollar has
been weakening again with the euro EUR= up around 5 percent this year at
around $1.24.

Now, a new Reuters poll suggests major investors believe this is not just
a
short-term phenomenon and that the dollar is heading down and the euro up
for some time.

Such moves could raise concerns again about both the euro zone's nascent
and primarily export-driven economic recovery and the attractiveness of
U.S.
assets.

The informal survey of strategists at 10 leading global investment firms
suggested the dollar will weaken slightly from current levels over the
next
three months then dip more significantly by the end of 2006.

It showed a mid-range projection of $1.25 per euro in three months and
$1.28 at the end of the year. The range for year-end projections was $1.20
to $1.30.

If the euro does reach the $1.28 level in December it would mark a gain of
more than three percent from current levels and mean a rise of close to
8.5
percent for the year.

Significantly, nine out of the 10 respondents projected the dollar to be
weaker at year-end than currently, suggesting a broad consensus that
decline
is in the air.

Three respondents offered 12-month projections of $1.30 to $1.35 which,
while not statistically significant, gave a hint that investors expect
dollar weakness to continue into 2007.

DEFICIT REDUX

Last year's dollar gain was primarily based on currency being drawn to the
higher U.S. interest rates on offer compared with those in the euro zone.

This masked and somewhat reversed the impact of a rising U.S. current
account deficit that has otherwise undermined the dollar, which tumbled
from
around 83 U.S. cents to the euro in mid-2001 to a low of $1.36 at the end
of
2004.

In an identical poll in October last year, investors predicted that the
impact of higher interest rates would begin to wane sometime this year,
leaving the U.S. current account deficit to hold sway. That now appears to
have happened.

"At the end of the day it's a function of interest rate differentials,"
said Ken Adams, head of global strategy at Scottish Widows Investment
Partnership.

The Fed has signalled that it is getting ready to end a cycle of
tightening
rates that has seen 15 hikes to 4.75 percent since mid-2004.

At the same time, the ECB has been signalling that it plans more hikes to
go with the two it has made since December last year. ECB Vice President
Lucas Papademos said on Tuesday that further increases from 2.50 percent
were warranted this year.

Many investors also believe that the U.S. economy is set to slow in the
second half of this year while the euro zone is enjoying a relative
revival.

U.S. HEGEMONY

Not everyone goes along with the weaker dollar scenario. AXA Investment
Managers was the lone dissenter in the poll, seeing the dollar at $1.20 to
the euro at the end of the year, higher than current rates.

Senior Strategist Chris Iggo said the reason is AXA's belief that the U.S.
economy will still dominate and have higher interest rates even if the gap
with Europe narrows.

"There is still a very positive interest rate differential," he said.
"(And) we don't see the U.S. economy going into any kind of recession."

AXA nonetheless trimmed its projections for dollar strength from a
previously more bullish stance.

Another argument in favour of the dollar is that a slowdown in U.S.
economic growth could spill over elsewhere.

That has Fortis Investments's Head of Allocation, Emiel van den
Heiligenberg, expecting the dollar to fall quickly against the euro in the
short-term but then to level off.

"When the U.S. economy slows the rest of world will as well," he said.
"Hence, (we see) the dollar in a range after a fall."

Either way, most investors do seem to have made up their mind that over
the
long haul, the state of U.S. finances requires the dollar to decline.

"The dollar has to go structurally weaker," said Klaus Wiener, chief
economist at AMB Generali Asset Managers.

On 27/04/06 21:11, in article ,
"Hatunen" wrote:

Why do you call it a "bar"? After all, even that web site
indicates that the dollar has exchanged well over 1.30 in the not
too distant past.

The dollar had been trading for a while in the 1.24 region, not moving above
1.25, where the "bar" to jump over was is in my mind.

your very sick mind.

"Earl Evleth" a écrit dans le message de news:
...
On 27/04/06 21:11, in article ,
"Hatunen" wrote:

Why do you call it a "bar"? After all, even that web site
indicates that the dollar has exchanged well over 1.30 in the not
too distant past.

The dollar had been trading for a while in the 1.24 region, not moving
above
1.25, where the "bar" to jump over was is in my mind.

On Thu, 27 Apr 2006 12:11:23 -0700, Hatunen wrote:

On Thu, 27 Apr 2006 19:21:55 +0200, Earl Evleth
wrote:


It is currently trading at 1.2543,
well past its 1.25 "bar". I posted
a week ot so that it was "certainly"
headed to 1.26. Now 1.28 it the next
likely projection.

The 5 yr plot is show at

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=USDEUR=X&t=5y

Why do you call it a "bar"? After all, even that web site
indicates that the dollar has exchanged well over 1.30 in the not
too distant past.

Earl would like us to take notice of his predictions, as he believes
them to be better than anyone elses.

History has, and will, prove him ignorable. Sorry Earl, it's nothing
personal...
--
---
DFM - http://www.deepfriedmars.com
---
--

hahaha martin

"Martin" a écrit dans le message de news:
...
On Thu, 27 Apr 2006 19:21:55 +0200, Earl Evleth
wrote:


It is currently trading at 1.2543,
well past its 1.25 "bar". I posted
a week ot so that it was "certainly"
headed to 1.26. Now 1.28 it the next
likely projection.

The 5 yr plot is show at

Yet another conspiracy theory?
--

Martin

On 27/04/06 23:56, in article ,
"Dave Frightens Me" wrote:

Earl would like us to take notice of his predictions, as he believes
them to be better than anyone elses.

History has, and will, prove him ignorable. Sorry Earl, it's nothing
personal...


Predicting some things is not difficult. I wrote a long posting on
"asset inflation" in 2000 ("On Long term evaluation of Equity Investments")
looking at the problem analytically. I terminated with the comment
"Hold on to your wallets", meaning we were about to take a big ride (down).

Since then the stock markets have been moving sideways (which I commented
would probably happen before it happened based on the authors comments
in "The Great 401k Hoax"). In fact, we had already before made
our financial decisions based on this happening. If you look at the long
range behavior of the DJI (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=my) you
will see long periods of flat behavior (1965-1983) and from 2000 on. From
1935-1950 was relatively flat. Rising periods tend to be nearly of the
same length. The current stagnation in the US stock markets has
only been for 5-6 years, it might well last longer. One can not anticipate
the DJI going to 26000 soon as did James Glassman in his 1999 book.

What makes things more complicated now is the huge liquidity of dollars
sloshing around the world, some 2 trillion in foreign debt. And
trading currency amounts are enormous, so speculative factors
mask fundamentals at times. We have asset inflation because there
are huge amounts of money to be invested, there is a crisis
in capitalism at least at this level. So after the bubble
deflated in the stock market, money rushed to real estate.

Next, there are periodic crisis in international capitalism too.
It occurred at the end of the 1920s. Many of the elements for
a big crisis are in place but I don't anticipate one until the
economic boom in China has exhausted itself. I think that has
a couple of years to go. But we are in relatively uncharted waters
right now, watch for the reef surf and stormy weather.

It's NO joke . Travel people like you should know.

The dollar is now touching the 1.26 as 4:41 CET.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURU...=on&z=m&q=l&c=

If you mix this with the oil barrel way above 70 $/ barrel ... That
makes not a good mix .