The Ongoing Threat to Cruise Ships!!!

Stratfor: Daily Terrorism Brief - December 13, 2005


The Ongoing Threat to Cruise Ships

In August, Israel's Shin Bet security service warned four Israeli
cruise vessels bound for Turkey to avoid the Mediterranean coast and
divert to Cyprus, citing a security risk in the region. The warning
came days after Turkish authorities arrested five men at a residence
in the port city of Mersin. Police, called to the scene after
chemicals the men were mixing to make explosives caught fire,
discovered nearly 5 pounds of plastic explosives and almost 45 pounds
of chemicals. Turkish police later said the suspects were planning to
attack government buildings and tourist sites. The cell's intended
target, however, almost certainly was at least one of the cruise ships
-- and the tourists on it.

The timing and severity of the Israeli warning -- coming so soon after
the Mersin raid -- has led some counterterrorism experts to believe
Israel dodged a bullet by diverting its ships in August -- and that
jihadists continue to plan an attack against a cruise ship. The
jihadists, who until recently had focused on hitting commercial
shipping targets, could now be shifting their sights to cruise ships
, these experts believe. Furthermore, al Qaeda has been known to
repeat an unsuccessful attempt against a specific target until it
succeeds.

Although where and when such an attempt might occur is unknown, the
area around Turkey would make a prime target. Many American and
European Christians are deferring trips to Israel because of the
unrest in that country, and instead are visiting religious sites in
Turkey, which they consider to be safer. Mersin is an especially
attractive port of call for passengers seeking to visit the city of
Tarsus, birthplace of the Apostle Paul. This stream of foreign
tourists could provide a tempting target for jihadists operating in
Turkey.

Because cruise ships -- as well as the ports they dock in -- are at
best only lightly defended, cruise ships present a soft target. While
at sea, the ships often are miles away from any assistance should they
come under attack. Moreover, a swift tactical response to an attack
against a ship in international waters can be hampered by issues of
jurisdiction and responsibility for a ship carrying passengers of
different nationalities.

As demonstrated in the October 1985 attack against the Achille Lauro,
a relatively small number of militants can seize a cruise ship with
little difficulty. Laborers, cooks or other low-skilled crew members
could represent an unreliable criminal element on a ship. By
coordinating with operatives planted among the passengers or crew, a
militant group could easily take over a cruise ship at sea -- taking
hundreds, if not thousands, of hostages or victims.

Cruise ships also fit into the targeting criteria of many militant
groups. For certain militant Islamist groups, a ship full of Israeli
tourists would be especially enticing. In addition, because they carry
anywhere from several hundred to a few thousand passengers and crew,
an attack against a cruise ship could easily result in mass
casualties.

Even while in port, a cruise ship is vulnerable to a terrorist attack.
Some aspects of an attack in port make that scenario extremely
dangerous, because of traffic congestion and the fact that the ship
would be moving slowly. An attack similar to the October 2000 suicide
bombing of the U.S.S. Cole in Aden, Yemen, would have devastating
results on a cruise ship. The crew would not see the a bomb-laden
suicide boat coming from as far away as they would on the high seas
and would not have much time (or space) to react and maneuver. Unlike
a warship -- built to withstand attacks from missiles, bombs, and
torpedoes -- cruise ships lack structural reinforcements and built-in
damage control systems. The bomb that nearly sunk the Cole, then,
could easily sink a much larger cruise ship.

The cell that likely was plotting to attack the ships in Turkey might
have been interrupted, but the danger to cruise ships remains. In the
Mediterranean Sea and off the coast of East Africa, routes often take
cruises near the coastlines of unstable countries that have active
insurgent or militant groups.

For their part, some cruise lines have tightened security since the
Sept. 11 attacks. Most U.S.-based lines have adopted the U.S. Coast
Guard's Level 3 security measures, which include increased screening
of both passenger luggage and the ship's supplies, closer inspection
of passenger identification and cross-referencing with U.S. government
watch lists, further restrictions on access to key areas such as the
engine rooms and bridge, increased time-of-entry notices from 24 hours
to 96 hours for all U.S. ports, and the creation of a 100-yard
security zone around the ship. In addition, each ship carries a Chief
Security Officer who leads a small team authorized to carry non-lethal
weapons such as pepper spray. Such a team would be trained to handle
such things as stowaways, contraband smuggling and, of course, the
threat of terrorism.

Some lines, including the Miami-based Seabourn Cruises, have equipped
their ships with advanced non-lethal weapons such as the Long Range
Acoustic Device, (LRAD), which the U.S. Navy has used since the attack
against the Cole. If the attackers know they are likely to encounter
the ear-splitting sound of an LRAD, however, they can employ
countermeasures such as earplugs. In any case, suffering a little pain
unlikely will deter a suicide attacker.

These measures are a start, although the effectiveness of each line's
security measures varies. In actuality, however, such measures
probably are insufficient to deter determined, heavily armed and
aggressive attackers.

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