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At what point will air travel become unaffordable



 
 
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  #12  
Old September 1st, 2006, 12:43 AM posted to rec.travel.air,rec.travel.europe
Jim Ley
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Posts: 862
Default At what point will air travel become unaffordable

On Thu, 31 Aug 2006 23:21:58 GMT, "Frank F. Matthews"
wrote:

In any case I suspect that ship travel could easily be cheaper even with
a reasonable level of service. Today the only service level on most
ships is high service. (Some river boats excluded.) Certainly for
hauling freight where time is not important ships are commonly used.


The weight of freight is considerably higher than a person, fuel costs
in passenger miles are not cheap for boats:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_ef...transportation

1.4 MJ/passenger-km for airplane

3.8 MJ/passenger-km for QE2

then saying 40% is used for propulsion so that/s 1.52 MJ / passenger
KM, so even the propulsion part alone of an ocean going vessel uses
more fuel than flying, I don't really see how a more expensive fuel
future is going to make everyone go on boats.

Even before you look at the much higher staffing costs (1 crew can
take 2000 maybe people a week on a boat compared to 6000 on a plane)

Jim.
  #13  
Old September 1st, 2006, 12:54 AM posted to rec.travel.air,rec.travel.europe
mrtravel[_1_]
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Posts: 1,521
Default At what point will air travel become unaffordable

B Anderson wrote:

mrtravel wrote:

B Anderson wrote:

But in the future, the world will be a bigger place. You will have to
sacrifice thousands of dollars to visit family overseas. Or, take a
boat trip of days weeks or even months.


Will the price of ship transportation get cheaper when fuel prices
make it too expensive to fly. What about the other costs of taking off
for weeks or months?



That's my point.


Your point made is sound like people would choose boat travel if air
travel cost too much.
  #14  
Old September 1st, 2006, 03:24 AM posted to rec.travel.air,rec.travel.europe
- Bobb -[_2_]
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Posts: 550
Default At what point will air travel become unaffordable

I missed the start of this thread, but was it that it costs too much to
travel these days ? I agree that it has gone up a lot in the past year
or two, but I think US airfares today are cheaper than they were in the
70's ( before all the cheap airlines that have since gone out of
business like People's Express et al.)

In the mid 70's it used to cost me about $500 to go round trip Boston-
LA.
I haven't paid that much in years. So although it went down to $150 and
now back up to $350, considering all of the inflation since the mid 70's
it's still cheap: especially with gas prices now. At 3000 miles one-way,
with gas at $3 per gal and 25 mpg, I would spend $720 to DRIVE r/t. So
anything less than that is a deal.


"mrtravel" wrote in message
om...
B Anderson wrote:
But in the future, the world will be a bigger place. You will have to
sacrifice thousands of dollars to visit family overseas. Or, take a
boat trip of days weeks or even months.


Will the price of ship transportation get cheaper when fuel prices
make it too expensive to fly. What about the other costs of taking off
for weeks or months?


  #15  
Old September 1st, 2006, 04:01 AM posted to rec.travel.air,rec.travel.europe
nobody[_1_]
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Posts: 356
Default At what point will air travel become unaffordable

The first to go will be discretionary travel. People will travel less
often for vacation.

For business travel, teleconferencing will become more prevalent, and
while the later will not eliminate the needs to travel on business, it
will reduce it.

Tourism may not die, but will become more localised. You'll have fewer
europeans going to Thailand for a beach holiday, and Thailand will need
to attract tourists from asia/pacific region to compensate.

I think outfits such as FedEx and DHL will be hardest hit because their
rates will become so high that people will think twice before sending
something FedEx. (it is already extremely expensive to ship
internationally with FedEx).
  #16  
Old September 1st, 2006, 07:03 AM posted to rec.travel.air,rec.travel.europe
Marty Shapiro
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Posts: 117
Default At what point will air travel become unaffordable

"Frank F. Matthews" wrote in
:



Hatunen wrote:
On Thu, 31 Aug 2006 23:47:54 +0200, Dave Frightens Me
wrote:


On Thu, 31 Aug 2006 18:27:59 GMT, (Jim Ley) wrote:



unless they make a lot more sailing ships, surely boats are less
efficient at moving people than a plane?

I can't see boats ever being better than planes in any terms apart


from comfort. The journey time means you need staff to be employed for


long periods, and that's where the costs are.



Yet the simple fact is that up well into the 1960s air travel was
expensive enough that ships were the preferred means of economy
travel from the USA to Europe. As to comfort, I understood at the
time comfort wasn't a consideration; the kids partied for the
entire crossing.

For those who wanted to travel air the cheapest fare was by the
non-IATA Iceland Airlines on a turpoprop at US $300 return New
York to Amsterdam via Goose Bay, Reykjavik, and Shannon.

Adjusted for inflation that $300 is $1901 today.



Did Icelandic fly into Amsterdam in their early says? I only remember
them from the mid 60s when they flew into Luxembourg to avoid IATA fare
rules.


You are absolutely correct. I flew Icelandic (Loftleider)in June of
1969 from JFK to Luxembourg. The stop in Iceland was at Keflavik, not
Reyjkavik. The aircraft was a Candair 440 turboprop. It was either later
that year or 1970 that they switched to the stretch DC-8. I remember that
the fare on LL was less than half of what the IATA member airlines wanted.

The IATA cartel started to collapse the next year. In November of 1970
I was able to go via BOAC from JFK to LHR for $170 for a week which
included airfare, hotel, rental car for one day, and 6 theater tickets.

--
Marty Shapiro
Silicon Rallye Inc.

(remove SPAMNOT to email me)
  #18  
Old September 1st, 2006, 07:23 AM posted to rec.travel.air,rec.travel.europe
Calif Bill
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Posts: 991
Default At what point will air travel become unaffordable


"Jim Ley" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 31 Aug 2006 23:21:58 GMT, "Frank F. Matthews"
wrote:

In any case I suspect that ship travel could easily be cheaper even with
a reasonable level of service. Today the only service level on most
ships is high service. (Some river boats excluded.) Certainly for
hauling freight where time is not important ships are commonly used.


The weight of freight is considerably higher than a person, fuel costs
in passenger miles are not cheap for boats:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_ef...transportation

1.4 MJ/passenger-km for airplane

3.8 MJ/passenger-km for QE2

then saying 40% is used for propulsion so that/s 1.52 MJ / passenger
KM, so even the propulsion part alone of an ocean going vessel uses
more fuel than flying, I don't really see how a more expensive fuel
future is going to make everyone go on boats.

Even before you look at the much higher staffing costs (1 crew can
take 2000 maybe people a week on a boat compared to 6000 on a plane)

Jim.


That airplane crew is more than the just the people on the plane. And boat
travel now is like first class air travel. Not much steerage class. If
things get too expensive on airtravel, there will be cheaper, more packed
boats. As to cost of flying, is probably cheaper now than 40 years ago.
Look at the cost to fly then and inflation.


  #19  
Old September 1st, 2006, 11:09 AM posted to rec.travel.air,rec.travel.europe
Jim Ley
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Posts: 862
Default At what point will air travel become unaffordable

On Fri, 01 Sep 2006 06:23:52 GMT, "Calif Bill"
wrote:

"Jim Ley" wrote in message
The weight of freight is considerably higher than a person, fuel costs
in passenger miles are not cheap for boats:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_ef...transportation

1.4 MJ/passenger-km for airplane

3.8 MJ/passenger-km for QE2

then saying 40% is used for propulsion so that/s 1.52 MJ / passenger
KM, so even the propulsion part alone of an ocean going vessel uses
more fuel than flying, I don't really see how a more expensive fuel
future is going to make everyone go on boats.

Even before you look at the much higher staffing costs (1 crew can
take 2000 maybe people a week on a boat compared to 6000 on a plane)


That airplane crew is more than the just the people on the plane.


As is the boat crew, however you're missing the vital point that if
airline prices go up due to fuel costs, then boat costs will rise
faster as they use more fuel per passenger.

And boat
travel now is like first class air travel. Not much steerage class. If
things get too expensive on airtravel, there will be cheaper, more packed
boats.


Everyone needs a bed to sleep in on a multiple overnight voyage, you
can't have the cross-channel ferry approach, which is still not much
better than a plane for fuel.

Jim.
  #20  
Old September 1st, 2006, 05:42 PM posted to rec.travel.air,rec.travel.europe
TOliver
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Posts: 195
Default At what point will air travel become unaffordable


"nobody" wrote...

The first to go will be discretionary travel. People will travel less
often for vacation.


In inflation adjusted costs, airfares - especially available international
fares - today remain well below those of the 50s/60s and 70s. They'll have
to ridse considerably to change peoples habits. Certainly, for those
located in "Middle America" off season fares to Europe remain no more than
those for many domestic trips. Within Europe, cheap fares seem available
with some planning (or willingness to go where/when fares or cheap). I'm
sure that there are added taxes/surchrges, but my morning's email brought me
BMI selling one ways for 13 pounds ++ for flights to the Continent (and
within the Continent) from the Scuppered H'aisles.



For business travel, teleconferencing will become more prevalent, and
while the later will not eliminate the needs to travel on business, it
will reduce it.


Some types of business travel may be reduced, but the same folks -
middle/lower management and technical types - who fill the economy seats now
will continue to do so, their services seemingly required on site.
Companies that routinely grit their teeth over $100 hotel rooms don't
hesitate to buy expensive plane tickets on short notice for peak period
flights.



Tourism may not die, but will become more localised. You'll have fewer
europeans going to Thailand for a beach holiday, and Thailand will need
to attract tourists from asia/pacific region to compensate.


The logic's simply not there. With some exceptions (and Thailand may be one
of them, as places like Australia and New Zealand), USAian travelers living
in relative proximity to an international gateway served by several airlines
can fly "over seas" as cheaply as they can fly to visit some US vacation
spots, and can routinely find "package" bargains no more expensive than one
of those 5 day cruises to nowhere and back. With most vacationers, the
judgement call has much to do with "effort to be expended" when costs are
relatively equal and affordable. The major appeal of cruises is
"effortlessness". The only time I ever was willing to take youngsters on an
international trip (when our daughters were 8 and 14, old enough to modestly
appreciate the attractions) was when my sister and brother in law (with 2
young children) were living in Germany. Air travel, even more expensive air
travel, becomes even more attractive for USAian families as the cost of
travel by auto increases, not just gasoline, but hotel/motel costs.


I think outfits such as FedEx and DHL will be hardest hit because their
rates will become so high that people will think twice before sending
something FedEx. (it is already extremely expensive to ship
internationally with FedEx).


Shipping "personal" shipments make up only a tiny fraction of the packages
hauled by those companies and UPS, just as the charges for thoise shipments
are a small percentage of their revenues.

Shipping costs for "goods" tend to be built into the price paid for those
goods, equations of time and value, and whether we're talking about giant
container ships loaded with containers packed with everything including
kitchen sinks from Asian ports or tiny, fragile highh-tech high priority
cargo sent by air into Alliance Airport North of Fort Worth, a massive air
freight only airport, no airlines, no pax, no general aviation, or the late
night movement of cargoes bwteeen a/c at freight "hubs" like Memphis,
commercial freight shippers and shipments play by entirely different rules
than business or pleasure travelers. Air freight is today far cheaper than
it once was, and is indispensable to dozens of businesses. Now, the
"document" side of the business sufferes as electronic transmission becomes
the norm, but I suspect thet DHL/FedEx/UPS are well able to factor in those
changes.

Back in the 50s and 60s, one could travel from Gulf, Atlantic and Canadian
ports all over the world relatively cheaply via regularly (well, sort of
regularly) scheduled "break-bulk" freighters which carried most seagoing
cargoes and a small number of passengers not in a hurry. Holland America
operated regular service out of Rotterdam for several Atlantic ports,
Galveston, Curacao and nearby ports and back to the Netherlands. If one was
not in a hurry, it wasa grand and comfortable way to travel economically.
The world changed and break bulk ships disappeared and few folks would want
to spend 30 days or more going to or coming from Rotterdam. Container ships
and bulk carriers weren't built and are not operated for passenger service,
and few passengers would voluntarily want to travel in such inconvenient
fashion and slow fashion at prices higher than economy airfares. These
days, port calls are measured in hours and the bulk and container facilities
are hardly suitable for tourism.

TMO

TMO


 




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